Where are the value bets in the 1.50 York? 🏇⤵️👇

Nineteen improving three-year-olds charging down York's straight mile is the sort of race where certainty should be left at the gate. There are plenty with sexy profiles; the trick is finding the ones whose prices haven't noticed.

Zennor Storm heads the betting and is easy enough to understand. He's talented, comes from William Haggas and has Tom Marquand aboard, but 5/1 asks you to solve an awful lot of a 19-runner Heritage Handicap correctly. He's won only once from five attempts at the mile and hasn't won this season. He's a contender rather than a bet at that price.

Outback Heat has more of the unexposed look. Two wins from four starts, two wins at the trip and an OR of 96 after only four appearances tell you how quickly he's climbed the ladder. He could climb another rung, but 11/2 doesn't leave much room for error.

Bearish might be the most straightforward improver in the field. He's two from four overall and, significantly, two from two over a mile. An opening handicap mark of 87 could underestimate him and Oisin Murphy takes the ride. The problem isn't Bearish. It's the 7/1.

Then we get to the interesting bit.

NOELAN STAR at 33/1 looks enormous.

Three wins from five starts, two wins from four around a mile and an Ed Bethell stable operating at 26% over the last month hardly reads like the CV of a 33/1 rag. Daniel Tudhope is riding at 22% during the same period and the gelding sits fourth on HRB's figures.

There may be a perfectly good reason why the market has pushed him into the cheap seats — but at 33/1 I don't need perfection. I need the market to have exaggerated his shortcomings.

St Anton is another whose price catches the eye. He tops the HRB rankings, has won three of his last five and three of six at the distance. OR97 and 9st 7lb make life tougher now, but 20/1 is beginning to price him as though improvement has stopped completely. I'm not convinced it has.

And don't completely lose Krasimir in the crowd. Six places from eight starts tells its own story, he's already won at a mile, and first-time cheekpieces could squeeze out another fraction. At 18/1 he's the sort who could still be travelling when several shorter-priced runners have cried enough.

This is a race where I'd rather buy the overlooked profile than pay top dollar for the fashionable one.

The market says Zennor Storm. The numbers say look wider.

PJ's shortlist

NOELAN STAR — 33/1 ⭐ BEST VALUE

ST ANTON — 20/1

KRASIMIR — 18/1

BEARISH — strongest of the shorter-priced runners

At 33/1, Noelan Star doesn't have to be the best horse in the race.

He just has to be nowhere near as bad as 33/1 says he is.

And I'm struggling to make him 33/1.