The Prix Guillaume d'Ornano looks a fascinating five-runner contest, with Montreal bringing the strongest established form but Daryzan heading the market on the expectation that there is considerably more to come.
Montreal sets the standard on his third in the Prix du Jockey Club. He was sent forward there and produced a career-best performance, finishing ahead of Daryzan and establishing himself around the 119 level. With only four starts behind him, it would be dangerous to assume that represents his ceiling. His preference for racing prominently is also significant in such a small field: if Ryan Moore is allowed to dictate, Montreal could prove difficult to pass.
Daryzan is the obvious threat. He was only seventh in the Jockey Club but was beaten just 3l, and that came on only his second start after an impressive Saint-Cloud debut. His subsequent victory told us relatively little because he did not need to reproduce his Chantilly form. I have him around 115 on what he has actually achieved, but his profile strongly suggests further improvement is possible. He needs to find roughly 4–5lb to reach Montreal's established level, although that is entirely plausible given his lack of experience.
Proof is more exposed but brings solid form. His Listed success at Compiègne confirmed him around 109, while his juvenile third in the Critérium de Saint-Cloud provides further evidence that he is a useful colt. He needs a meaningful step forward to trouble the principals if they run to form, but he is the most obvious candidate to capitalise if the race becomes tactical or either favourite underperforms.
Baroud continues to progress and arrives after finishing second in the Group 2 Prix Eugène Adam. I have that performance around 104, however, so the bare Group 2 placing probably flatters his standing slightly. He needs another sizeable improvement.
Hello Jo is harder to assess. His AW Listed victory was useful and his subsequent Group 3 fourth wasn't without merit, but he was well beaten in the Derby Italiano. Heavy ground provides a legitimate excuse for that run and returning to good ground should suit better, although his best form still leaves him with something to find.
Ratings
Horse| Rating
Montreal| 119
Daryzan| 115
Proof| 109
Baroud| 104
Hello Jo| 102
Race shape
Montreal could control this from the front and that is potentially important. Five-runner middle-distance races can become tactical, and a steady early gallop would favour the horse able to dictate rather than necessarily producing a clean test of ability.
Daryzan therefore faces both a form and tactical question: he has to improve past Montreal while potentially having to catch a rival who gets first run. Conversely, a properly run race would make this a cleaner examination of whether Daryzan's considerable potential is ready to translate into Group 2-level performance.
Verdict
Montreal is the horse to beat on achieved form. His Jockey Club third is comfortably the strongest single piece of evidence in the field and a reproduction would set Daryzan a proper target.
Daryzan may ultimately prove the better colt, and his lightly raced profile makes him the most likely improver, but his short price is asking the punter to pay for some of that improvement before he has demonstrated it.
Montreal therefore makes more appeal at the prices supplied. He has the stronger existing figure, should be well suited by the tactical possibilities of a five-runner race and does not necessarily need to improve to win.
Private pre-race par: 120
Preference: Montreal over Daryzan.
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