More Thunder heads the market and brings arguably the strongest body of recent form. He finished runner-up in both the Lockinge and Queen Anne before things went against him in a steadily-run Summer Mile at Ascot. That tactical affair favoured Zeus Olympios, whereas More Thunder was unable to use his finishing speed effectively. A stronger gallop here should suit him much better, and his peak RPR of 131 is the joint-highest in the field. He remains without a Group 1 victory, however, which makes odds around 11/4 short enough.
Precise receives an important weight allowance as a three-year-old filly and is remarkably consistent apart from her 1,000 Guineas disappointment. She won the Irish 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes before twice finishing second to Blue Bolt, most recently over this course and distance in the Prix Rothschild. She has the class to win, although her tendency to surrender ground at the start isn't ideal in a race this competitive.
The most interesting contender could be Rayif. Francis Graffard's colt produced his standout performance when winning the French 2,000 Guineas over a mile at Longchamp and can be forgiven his subsequent fifth behind Thesecretadversary in the Jean Prat. Seven furlongs and the tactical nature of that race didn't play to his strengths. Back at a mile, with the prospect of a stronger pace, he has a genuine chance of returning to his Guineas level. His connections have also reported that he has pleased them in preparation for this race.
Zeus Olympios deserves plenty of respect. He beat More Thunder in the Summer Mile and was an impressive winner of the Joel Stakes last season, while Karl Burke reports that he has strengthened physically through the summer. The question is whether he can find the extra required at Group 1 level; he is 0-2 at the top level so far.
Thesecretadversary arrives in excellent form after winning the Jersey Stakes and then the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat here. The concern is the return to a mile. His biggest improvement has come at seven furlongs and he was beaten in both the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas. With Sir Tommy Cen another possible pace influence, Thesecretadversary may not get the comfortable tactical setup he enjoyed in the Jean Prat.
The wildcard is Japanese challenger Sixpence. He defeated a huge field in the Grade 1 Yasuda Kinen over a mile at Tokyo in June and has already demonstrated that a strongly-run mile on fast turf suits him. His best form puts him within striking distance of the Europeans, making double-figure odds interesting rather than merely speculative.
Race shape
Sir Tommy Cen looks the most obvious candidate to go forward, with Thesecretadversary and potentially Zeus Olympios also prominent. Sixpence shouldn't be far away. That should produce a more genuine gallop than the Summer Mile and potentially turn this into a proper test of miling ability.
That scenario is a significant positive for More Thunder and Rayif, while it raises a slight stamina question over Thesecretadversary.
Verdict
RAYIF gets the vote. His French Guineas victory remains one of the strongest pieces of three-year-old mile form represented here, and his Jean Prat defeat is easier to forgive than the bare result suggests. Back at his optimum mile and around 11/2–6/1, he offers more value than the favourites.
More Thunder is feared most. A strongly-run race gives him every opportunity to reverse the Summer Mile form with Zeus Olympios, while Precise has to be respected receiving weight from the older horses.
Sixpence is the fascinating outsider and could easily outrun his price if reproducing his Yasuda Kinen performance.
1. RAYIF
2. MORE THUNDER
3. PRECISE
Best bet: Rayif — win around 11/2–6/1.
Value outsider: Sixpence — around 14/1.
No comments:
Post a Comment