3.40 Newmarket — bet365 Cambridgeshire 🏇⤵️👇

The evidence points most strongly towards Bourbon Blues, with Thunder Run the chief danger and best bigger-priced alternative.

Expected at the fore near the line

1. Bourbon Blues — 12.0

The clearest all-round profile:

Top overall HRB rating: 395.8

Top last-race/speed figure: 114

Outstanding jockey/trainer/stallion score: 90.6

Ryan Moore booked

Comes here after winning

Stall 13 gives him options near the centre

He is approximately 38 points clear on the overall ratings. The only slight concern is that he has already climbed to OR 105 and must prove himself in an exceptionally competitive handicap.

2. Thunder Run — 21.0

The most interesting value runner:

Second overall: 357.9

Speed/last-race figure of 113

Recent winner

Karl Burke and Clifford Lee won this race in both 2024 and 2025

The last three winners carried 9-12, so his 10-0 is not automatically prohibitive

He lacks Bourbon Blues’ depth across the secondary figures, but his price compensates for that.

3. Hand Of God — 11.0

A solid rather than spectacular candidate:

Third overall on 338.0

Speed figure 104

Proven course winner

Finished second last time

Stall 24 could be useful if the stronger pace develops towards the stands’ side

His adjusted last-race figure suggests he may not be quite as well treated as Bourbon Blues or Thunder Run.

4. Wild Thoughts — 19.0

One of the more appealing younger runners:

Speed figure 108

Recent winner

Only 8-8 from OR 93

Progressive three-year-old profile

Sixth overall despite having very limited mileage

He has only one mile recorded by HRB, so there is more uncertainty, but also more potential improvement.

5. Shafdar — 29.0

The outsider most likely to outrun his price:

Fourth overall: 337.9

Last-race figure 101

William Buick booked

Arrives after winning

Manageable weight of 8-13

Stall 5 is the main tactical unknown, but historical winners have come from virtually every part of the track.

Favourite assessment

Gavriel at 4.5 looks too short.

He is unbeaten in three of four starts and has considerable potential, but:

He ranks only eighth overall.

His speed figure of 102 is 12 points below Bourbon Blues.

Stall 28 leaves him exposed to how the race develops.

His price demands a much higher degree of certainty than the available evidence provides.

He is clearly capable of winning, but the market appears to have priced the potential rather than the proven performance.

My tissue

Horse Fair odds Available

Bourbon Blues 9.0 12.0

Thunder Run 15.0 21.0

Hand Of God 12.0 11.0

Wild Thoughts 17.0 19.0

Gavriel 7.5 4.5

Harmonics 17.0 13.0

Shafdar 23.0 29.0

Indalo 14.0 10.0

Betting decision

1 point each way Bourbon Blues at 12.0

0.5 point each way Thunder Run at 21.0 or bigger

My expected leading group inside the final furlong is Bourbon Blues, Thunder Run, Hand Of God and Wild Thoughts, with Shafdar the likeliest one to arrive late at a big price. Bourbon Blues is the strongest individual selection; Thunder Run is the best value relative to the ratings.

16:15 Listowel — Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Ten-Year Trends Point Towards the Second and Third Favourites 🏇⤵️👇

The Kerry National is one of Ireland’s great staying handicaps—a race requiring class, stamina, jumping efficiency and the ability to cope with a large, competitive field.

Historical trends should never replace an assessment of the individual horses, but they can reveal the type of runner that has generally been suited by this particular test. This year’s evidence produces a strong shortlist while raising legitimate questions about several prominent contenders.

The Ideal Kerry National Profile

The clearest profile emerging from the HorseRaceBase study is:

- A seven- or eight-year-old.

- Positioned second or third in the market.

- Priced between 9/2 and 8/1.

- Finished in the first five last time.

- Returning after approximately 31–60 days.

- Has already raced during the current season.

- Six to nine runs during the previous 12 months.

- Carries no more than 11st 5lb.

- Has sufficient stamina evidence, preferably over approximately three miles.

No horse needs to tick every box, but the more important factors point us towards a relatively small group.

Seven and Eight-Year-Olds Dominate

Seven-year-olds have the strongest record:

- 53 runners.

- Six winners.

- 14 places.

- Level-stakes profit of 15 points.

Eight-year-olds supplied another three winners, meaning those two age groups accounted for nine of the 11 winners represented in the study.

Five-year-olds supplied one winner from only five runners, while the sole nine-year-old winner was Flooring Porter in 2024.

The older groups performed poorly:

- Ten-year-olds: 0 wins from 19.

- Eleven-year-olds: 0 wins from seven.

- Horses aged 12 or older: 0 wins from two.

That is encouraging for Downmexicoway, Nowwhatdoyouthink, King Alexander, Kings Hill and Conyers Hill. It counts against French Dynamite, Doctor Ken and Jesse Evans.

Beware the Favourite

The most striking statistic concerns market position.

The favourite recorded:

- 12 runners.

- No winners.

- Three places.

In contrast, the second and third favourites performed extremely well:

- Second favourite: four winners from 11.

- Third favourite: three winners from 14.

- Combined: seven winners and 11 places from 25 runners.

At the current exchange prices, that places Downmexicoway and King Alexander in potentially significant positions behind favourite Nowwhatdoyouthink.

The evidence doesn’t mean the favourite cannot win. It tells us that the market leader has historically been overestimated, while the next two in the betting have offered considerably better returns.

Concentrate on the 9/2–8/1 Range

The most productive odds bands were:

- 9/2–6/1: three winners from 16.

- 13/2–8/1: four winners from 24.

Together, these brackets produced seven winners from 40 runners and a healthy level-stakes profit.

Results declined sharply beyond that point:

- 17/2–12/1: two winners from 44.

- 14/1–20/1: two winners from 61.

- 22/1–40/1: no winners from 42.

- 50/1 or bigger: no winners from two.

This has not been a particularly rewarding race for speculative outsiders. The historical sweet spot sits between the favourite and the middle of the market.

Downmexicoway and King Alexander fall squarely inside that preferred range at their current exchange prices.

Recent Form Matters

Nine of the winners had finished in the first five on their previous appearance:

- First: four winners.

- Second: two winners.

- Third: one winner.

- Fourth: one winner.

- Fifth: one winner.

Only two winners emerged from all the runners who had finished sixth or worse, fallen, unseated or been pulled up.

That supports:

- Downmexicoway, fifth last time.

- Nowwhatdoyouthink, fourth.

- King Alexander, first.

- Kings Hill, first.

- Conyers Hill, second.

- Uncle Pat, second.

It is a significant negative for Funiculi Funicula, Will The Wise, Ballygunner Castle, Perceval Legallois, Jesse Evans and You Oughta Know.

The 31–60-Day Preparation

Six winners returned after a break of between 31 and 60 days. That was comfortably the most common preparation window.

The following leading contenders all arrive after approximately eight weeks:

- Downmexicoway: 56 days.

- Nowwhatdoyouthink: 56 days.

- King Alexander: 56 days.

- Kings Hill: 54 days.

- Funiculi Funicula: 56 days.

- Conyers Hill: 56 days.

Long absences proved difficult to overcome. Horses returning after 121–365 days were 0 from 21.

That is a warning for Doctor Ken, Look To The West and You Oughta Know.

A Recent Campaign Is Preferred

Horses with six to nine runs during the previous 12 months supplied nine winners. This suggests that runners generally require a solid recent body of work rather than arriving lightly raced or after an interrupted campaign.

Seasonal debutants were also 0 from 24. By comparison, horses having their second run of the season produced six winners from 56.

The general message is clear: race fitness matters, but an overly busy campaign is not necessarily desirable.

Weight: A Question for the Leading Trio

No winner in the study carried more than 11st 5lb.

That creates a concern around:

- Funiculi Funicula: 11st 12lb.

- King Alexander: 11st 11lb.

- Downmexicoway: 11st 7lb.

- Nowwhatdoyouthink: 11st 7lb.

King Alexander otherwise has an excellent profile, but he must concede substantial weight in a demanding three-mile handicap.

Kings Hill carries 10st 12lb, while Conyers Hill has 11st 2lb before Alan O’Sullivan’s 5lb claim. Those weights make them interesting alternatives to the leading trio.

Weight should not be treated as an automatic elimination factor because the current race may contain a different distribution of talent. Nevertheless, it is the principal trend King Alexander, Downmexicoway and Nowwhatdoyouthink must overcome.

Proven at Exactly Three Miles Is Not Essential

Only three winners had previously won at exactly three miles. Several had registered their longest victory between 2m5f and 3m1f.

The trends therefore demand evidence of sufficient stamina, rather than insisting on a previous victory over precisely today’s distance.

King Alexander is already a three-mile winner. Nowwhatdoyouthink shaped as though returning to this trip would suit him, while Funiculi Funicula still has a genuine stamina question to answer.

The Leading Trend Contenders

Downmexicoway

Downmexicoway has the strongest overall combination of age, recent form, preparation, market position and price.

He is seven, finished fifth at Galway, returns after 56 days and is currently second favourite. His exchange price also places him inside the historically strongest betting range.

His 11st 7lb is the one notable concern, but everything else fits extremely well.

King Alexander

King Alexander is another major qualifier.

He is eight, won last time, returns after 56 days, is proven at three miles and occupies the historically productive third position in the market.

The obvious obstacle is 11st 11lb. No winner in the study carried that much weight, so he will need to produce a high-class handicap performance.

Nowwhatdoyouthink

Nowwhatdoyouthink fits the preferred age, recent-form and preparation criteria. He is also the Timeform selection and may improve for returning to three miles.

However, he is the favourite in a race where market leaders have gone 0 from 12. He also carries 11st 7lb.

He remains the most likely individual winner, but the trends suggest demanding a fair price rather than following him at increasingly short odds.

Kings Hill

Kings Hill is the most interesting lower-weight contender.

The seven-year-old won at Galway, returns after 54 days and carries only 10st 12lb. His personal profile is strong, although his position outside the first three in the betting is historically less persuasive.

He makes more appeal than many runners at similar prices.

Conyers Hill

Conyers Hill is the quieter trends contender.

He is eight, arrives after 56 days and has finished second on his last three completed starts. His official rating of 139 and allocated weight of 11st 2lb also fall within proven historical ranges.

The question is whether his consistency conceals a lack of the necessary winning class, but he should not be dismissed.

The Poor Fit Among the Principals

Funiculi Funicula possesses natural ability and has Paul Townend aboard, but his trends profile contains several negatives:

- Six-year-olds are 0 from 16.

- He finished outside the first five at Galway.

- He carries 11st 12lb.

- His stamina over three miles remains unproven.

- His current price falls outside the most productive bracket.

Townend’s record of six places from 11 Kerry National rides suggests Funiculi Funicula could still run creditably, but his overall profile does not make him an attractive trends bet.

Ten-Year Trends Verdict

The historical evidence produces the following shortlist:

1. Downmexicoway

2. King Alexander

3. Nowwhatdoyouthink

4. Kings Hill

5. Conyers Hill

Downmexicoway provides the best overall blend of trends and market value. King Alexander possesses an excellent winning profile but must overcome a serious weight burden.

Nowwhatdoyouthink is the horse to beat on current form, although the poor record of favourites makes his price important.

Kings Hill and Conyers Hill are the two lower-weight alternatives capable of outrunning their positions in the market.

The trends do not hand us the winner, but they direct us towards the right part of the field: a fit seven- or eight-year-old, arriving in good form and trading near the front of the market without necessarily being the favourite.

On that evidence, Downmexicoway is the ten-year trends selection for the 2026 Kerry National, with King Alexander the principal danger.

19:12 Wolverhampton — Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap MOON BEGINNINGS: HAS THE HANDICAPPER GIVEN HIM A SECOND CHANCE? 🏇⏱️⤵️👇

A former highly regarded prospect, an 11 lb drop in the weights and a speed profile that suggests there may still be plenty of ability beneath some disappointing form figures. Moon Beginnings is a horse worth putting firmly on the radar.

There are occasions in handicapping when the most interesting horse is not the one arriving in winning form, but the one whose recent results have caused the market and handicapper to lose confidence.

Moon Beginnings could be one of those horses.

The David Loughnane-trained four-year-old contests the 7.12 at Wolverhampton on Monday evening from an official rating of just 66.

That is particularly interesting when we examine where this horse started, what connections originally thought of him and, most importantly, what his speed figures tell us about his remaining ability.

A HORSE WHO PROMISED CONSIDERABLY MORE

Moon Beginnings made a winning debut at Chester in September 2025, overcoming inexperience and a wide trip to record a Racing Post Rating of 80.

That performance attracted the attention of Nick Bradley Racing, who subsequently acquired a half share in the horse.

Their original assessment was ambitious.

According to the ownership syndicate's account, Moon Beginnings had been regarded as one of the best work horses in David Loughnane's yard, reportedly working alongside the talented Sparks Fly and occasionally finishing ahead of her.

Hugh Taylor was also involved in the syndicate's assessment of the horse's potential.

Connections believed they had acquired a colt capable of developing into a performer rated in the high 90s.

Those expectations have not been realised on the racecourse.

But that is precisely what makes his current situation interesting.

FROM A MARK OF 77 TO JUST 66

Moon Beginnings was racing from an official rating of 77 in May.

Today, he runs from 66.

That represents an 11 lb reduction in less than four months.

His recent finishing positions have been disappointing, and the handicapper has responded accordingly.

However, a falling handicap mark does not necessarily mean a horse has lost an equivalent amount of ability.

Sometimes a horse becomes increasingly well treated because his circumstances have prevented him from reproducing his best form.

The challenge for the handicapper is to establish whether those circumstances are temporary or whether the decline is genuine.

With Moon Beginnings, the speed figures provide a reason to investigate further.

THE HRB SPEED FIGURES TELL A MORE ENCOURAGING STORY

HorseRaceBase's Daily Speed Tool has Moon Beginnings clear at the top of its headline ratings for this Wolverhampton handicap.

His figures make interesting reading:

- HRB headline rating: 84.09

- Maximum historical speed: 88.30

- Average speed: 68.11

- Latest run: 70.38

- Three runs ago: 71.53

His headline rating is almost 14½ points higher than that of second-ranked The Hare Rail.

That is a substantial advantage on this particular ratings scale, although the headline figure is not itself a direct forecast of today's performance.

More importantly, his latest speed figure suggests he may not be performing quite as poorly as his recent form figures imply.

At Kempton on 9 September, Moon Beginnings finished ninth of 14, beaten just under four lengths.

On paper, another disappointing effort.

But HRB awarded him a speed figure of 70.38, above his historical average of 68.11.

He was also well supported in the betting, starting at 4/1.

The finishing position and speed performance tell slightly different stories.

That discrepancy is worth investigating.

TODAY'S CONDITIONS OFFER ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY

Monday's assignment is over 1m 142y at Wolverhampton, where Moon Beginnings has already recorded his highest historical speed figure in the supplied HRB data.

His maximum track, distance and going figures all reach 88.30.

These are overlapping categories rather than three separate performances, but they provide evidence that the conditions need not be a disadvantage.

He also has a potentially suitable draw in stall four.

Timeform forecasts a very strong pace, which could become important if the early leaders expend too much energy.

Moon Beginnings will need to settle and finish his race effectively, but the projected gallop provides a possible route back to competitiveness.

The longer distance is another question to consider. His debut victory came over seven furlongs, although his Saxon Warrior pedigree offers encouragement that he should not be restricted to sprinting distances.

WHAT ABOUT THE OPPOSITION?

American State brings solid course form and produced an excellent latest HRB speed figure of 80.81.

Highland Olly is another fascinating contender, racing from an all-weather mark 11 lb lower than his recent turf rating.

Espanita arrives in winning form and is understandably prominent in the market.

Moon Beginnings does not have their recent winning credentials.

What he does have is a combination of historical ability, a reduced handicap mark and speed figures that suggest the market may be overlooking him.

At the supplied 10/1, that makes him particularly interesting.

---

THE HANDICAPPER'S NOTEBOOK

HORSE TO FOLLOW: MOON BEGINNINGS

Trainer: David Loughnane

Official rating: 66

HRB speed rank: 1st of 10

Supplied price: 10/1

Why he interests us: Formerly highly regarded, down 11 lb from his May mark, with recent speed evidence suggesting his ability may be better than his finishing positions indicate.

THE VERDICT

Moon Beginnings is not a horse to follow blindly.

His recent form contains genuine disappointments, and the original expectations of connections must be treated as historical information rather than evidence of his present ability.

But we do not need him to develop into the high-90s performer they once hoped he might become.

We simply need him to retain enough of his earlier ability to prove better than an official rating of 66.

His speed figures suggest that possibility deserves serious consideration.

Whether he wins at Wolverhampton or not, Moon Beginnings is a horse I want firmly in the notebook.

The combination of a falling handicap mark, historical speed ability and potentially misleading finishing positions makes him exactly the type of runner worth monitoring for a return to form.

The market may have lost confidence in him.

The evidence suggests we should not write him off just yet.

The aim is not to predict every winner. It is to recognise when a horse's price may no longer reflect its underlying ability.

16:00 Hamilton — Big Drew Hunter Memorial Handicap. Trip Handicapping 🏇⏱️⤵️👇

Sunday 20 September 2026 | Class 4 | 1m 68y | Heavy (soft in places)

The Haydock rematch, a progressive handicap debutant and the case for looking beyond the result

There is a useful lesson at the heart of this Hamilton handicap: a finishing position tells us what happened, but not always how well a horse ran.

Monoceros beat Military Leader by a length at Haydock earlier this month. On the bare result, the winner is the obvious starting point. But Military Leader met interference as he tried to make his challenge, recovered to dispute the lead, and was eventually held by a horse who found more when pressed.

That is precisely the sort of race we want to examine through the combined lens of form comments, sectionals and trip handicapping. The question is not whether we can invent an excuse for the runner-up. It is whether the evidence justifies rating his performance above the bare result—and whether today's odds compensate us for the remaining uncertainty.

Empire Of Light is a non-runner, leaving 11 runners.

### The conditions could change everything

Timeform reports heavy ground, soft in places, and forecasts a strong pace. It also flags a possible disadvantage to high draws.

Those details matter more than usual here. Several runners have produced their best recent performances on much quicker ground, while Monoceros and Military Leader have already shown that they can compete on soft.

Krissy, Cadarn and Vincenzo Peruggia have all shown a willingness to race forward. Krissy is particularly important to the pace picture: she has led in four of her last five races, and her latest second at Ayr came just three days ago.

An uncontested lead could make her dangerous. A prolonged battle for the lead on heavy ground could produce a very different outcome.

I would expect Monoceros and Military Leader to race behind the early speed, with Maximising and Time Loop potentially settling farther back. Rajapour is another who may need the race to develop in his favour.

The pace forecast is strong, but a strong pace does not automatically make every hold-up horse a good bet. Position, ground loss and the point at which a jockey asks for an effort remain crucial.

### Monoceros: the Haydock winner has earned his place near the head of the market

Monoceros arrives after a career-best victory over Military Leader at Haydock on 5 September. He travelled in touch, took over more than a furlong out and responded gamely when challenged late.

The three-year-old is only 3lb higher today. More importantly, his improvement came on soft ground, which is directly relevant to this assignment.

His earlier fifth at Galway, beaten just 1.3 lengths on soft, also suggests that the Haydock win was not an isolated piece of evidence.

There is a temptation to downgrade a narrow winner when the runner-up had trouble. We should resist going too far. Monoceros did not merely inherit the race: he was challenged and found enough to win.

The question is whether heavy ground, rather than soft, asks a different question. He has a convincing case, but his latest run should not be treated as a guarantee of further improvement.

### Military Leader: the clearest trip-handicap candidate

Military Leader is the most interesting horse in the race from our developing trip-handicapping perspective.

At Haydock, he was impeded when moving towards the centre two furlongs out. He subsequently made headway, disputed the lead entering the final furlong and finished a length behind Monoceros.

That sequence matters. The interference occurred at a point when the race was beginning in earnest, and he still managed to get himself into contention.

He has also been remarkably consistent. His recent sequence includes a four-length win at Thirsk and several narrow seconds, including one on soft ground at Chester.

I have provisionally awarded him a +2lb trip adjustment for Haydock. That is a judgement-based allowance for the interrupted challenge—not a claim that we have measured precisely two pounds of lost performance from the sectionals.

There is an important counterweight today: stall 11. If he has to work hard to obtain a position or travel wider than ideal, the benefit of that Haydock upgrade could disappear.

Nevertheless, the combination of recent form, ground evidence and a specific trip excuse makes him a serious contender.

### Maximising: progressive, but is the market already paying for it?

Maximising won at Windsor on 29 August, coming from midfield to lead a furlong out and staying on strongly to score by two lengths.

He is lightly raced for a four-year-old and has won two of his last five starts. His Windsor success on good to soft is encouraging, and a 5lb rise is not an unreasonable response to a decisive victory.

The distinction in our method is that potential improvement is not the same as a trip-handicap upgrade.

His Windsor comments describe an effective, winning passage rather than a performance compromised by traffic or an obvious pace disadvantage. We can believe he has more to offer without adding arbitrary pounds to what he achieved.

At the supplied 3/1, the market appears to have recognised much of that potential. Heavy ground is another question he still has to answer.

He can win, but I want a bigger price before treating him as value.

### Matter Of Britain: the unexposed danger

Matter Of Britain is the most intriguing unknown.

He won a maiden over this course and distance on 11 August, travelling strongly before drawing three lengths clear. He now makes his handicap debut from a mark of 79.

That is a very different proposition from assessing an exposed older handicapper. We have only three starts on which to judge him, and his latest performance suggests that he may not yet have shown his full ability.

But there are two significant reservations.

First, his win came on good to firm, not heavy. Secondly, he is drawn in stall 12. The combination could make life difficult if he is unable to establish a comfortable early position.

I would not award him a trip upgrade for the Hamilton maiden. His appeal is the possibility of further improvement from a limited racing record.

At 14/1 on the supplied card, that uncertainty is reflected in the price more generously than it is for some of the better-known contenders.

### Krissy: the pace question

Krissy is a difficult horse to dismiss.

She was beaten only a neck over ten furlongs at Ayr on soft ground three days ago and has also finished a close second at Hamilton this season. Her recent form is stronger than her relatively modest official rating of 75 might suggest.

Her forward-going style could be an asset if she settles into a comfortable rhythm. Yet the likely presence of other pace horses makes that far from certain.

The drop back in trip and quick turnaround introduce further questions. Her chance may depend less on a hidden rating than on whether the others allow her to dictate.

### Rajapour: don't count the same excuse twice

Rajapour's Redcar victory on 22 August is an excellent example of why we want to use Race IQ. He came from the rear, encountered limited room and still won decisively.

That is the kind of performance whose bare winning margin may not tell the full story.

But he has already run again, finishing seventh of 19 at York from a higher mark. We cannot simply award a fresh bonus today for trouble he overcame at Redcar and then add another for his latest run.

His York comments describe a slow start and steady late headway, but no decisive evidence that he would have threatened the principals with a clear passage.

He is capable of better than his latest placing suggests, though the ground and current mark leave enough uncertainty to prevent a confident endorsement.

### Time Loop and the remainder

Time Loop improved in a first-time hood when fourth at Salisbury, beaten less than a length. He is entitled to consideration, but the supplied 10/3 is short enough for a horse who still has to prove that he can put everything together in a competitive handicap on heavy ground.

Cadarn has a course run that Timeform believes was compromised by aggressive tactics. That makes him worth a second look at a big price, although he faces a potentially contested lead again.

Lucky Camino has course-and-distance winning form and encountered trouble at Kempton in August. His subsequent poor Salisbury run, however, creates a genuine question about his current form.

Vincenzo Peruggia has been fading late after racing prominently, which is hardly an ideal profile for a strongly run mile on testing ground. Good Morning Alex has dropped in the weights but has yet to provide convincing evidence of a revival.

### Our provisional 100% tissue

This is a pre-race judgement tissue, not a completed sectional-derived model. It incorporates the form and trip evidence available so far, while leaving room for the uncertainty surrounding the ground and draw.

| Horse | Win probability | Fair decimal odds |

| ----------------- | --------------- | ----------------- |

| Monoceros | 20% | 5.00 |

| Military Leader | 18% | 5.56 |

| Maximising | 15% | 6.67 |

| Matter Of Britain | 12% | 8.33 |

| Time Loop | 10% | 10.00 |

| Krissy | 8% | 12.50 |

| Rajapour | 6% | 16.67 |

| Cadarn | 4% | 25.00 |

| Lucky Camino | 3% | 33.33 |

| Vincenzo Peruggia | 2.5% | 40.00 |

| Good Morning Alex | 1.5% | 66.67 |

| Total | 100% | |

Fair odds are before exchange commission. The prices supplied on the Timeform card may have changed.

### The betting angle

At the card prices, Military Leader at 15/2 is the most interesting combination of form and potential market oversight. His Haydock second is already strong evidence, and the interference gives us a reason to believe the bare result may not capture everything he achieved.

Monoceros at 5/1 also appeals on the tissue. He is the proven soft-ground winner from the key form line and has only a modest rise to overcome.

Matter Of Britain at 14/1 offers the most speculative upside. His course-and-distance maiden win was commanding, but the switch to heavy ground and his wide draw prevent him from being a straightforward selection.

I would be less enthusiastic about taking 3/1 Maximising or 10/3 Time Loop. Both have chances; the issue is price, not whether they are capable of winning.

### Final verdict

Military Leader is the provisional value selection, subject to the exchange price holding up and the ground remaining as advertised. The Haydock interference gives us a specific, evidence-based reason to reassess his performance, rather than a vague hope that he might improve.

Monoceros is the horse he must beat on the direct form, while Matter Of Britain is the runner whose unexposed profile could make our current ratings look conservative.

The wider lesson is the one we want to carry into every preview: rate what the horse achieved, identify what the trip may have cost, and only then ask whether the market has made the same adjustment.

13:20 Ayr — Ladbrokes ‘Bet £5 Get £30 New Customer Offer’ Fillies’ Nursery Handicap 🏇⏱️⤵️👇

7f 50y | Class 4 | 2yo fillies | Soft | 9 runners

Sometimes the most interesting races are those where the market, the form book and the ratings don't quite agree.

The 13:20 at Ayr is one of them.

Diplomata is the clear favourite after overcoming significant trouble to beat One Shot Kodi at Haydock. She was repeatedly short of room before producing a strong finish, so the bare one-length winning margin almost certainly understates her superiority. She has gone up 10 lb, while One Shot Kodi meets her on 6 lb better terms. Timeform nevertheless expects Diplomata to confirm the form.

She may well do so.

But at around 11/8, we're being asked a different question: not can Diplomata win?, but does her chance justify that price?

My answer is no.

The ratings point somewhere else

The horse who interests me most is Missouri Waltz.

The HRB Daily Speed Tool ranks her first with a rating of 74.37, ahead of Global Success on 73.28. Her peak HRB speed figure of 76.84 is also strong in the context of this field.

Then we ran the race through HRB's TimeWise Flat ratings.

Again, Missouri Waltz came out first.

Her TimeWise total of 340.6 puts her ahead of:

Necromancer 320.2

Diplomata 310.0

Motown Filly 296.2

Bai Tong 261.4

That agreement matters.

We're not relying on one eye-catching number. Two different rating approaches independently identify the same filly.

There is further support within the TimeWise components. Missouri Waltz has the highest Horse rating (177.3), the highest Speed component (72.7) and, most interestingly, the strongest Today figure (35.5).

For a horse available at a much bigger price than the favourite, that's difficult to ignore.

The form case

Missouri Waltz has raced only twice.

She made a winning debut over seven furlongs at Catterick before stepping up to a mile at Newmarket and finishing second.

That latest defeat doesn't worry me greatly.

Timeform's interpretation is particularly interesting: they felt the longer distance was unsuitable given how she shaped and believe she retains potential back at around seven furlongs. Today's 7f 50y therefore looks much more suitable.

She has to carry top weight from an opening mark of 82, so this is no gift from the handicapper. Racing Post's current card similarly identifies the handicap mark as a question she needs to answer.

But that's where price enters the equation.

At a short price I'd want much more certainty.

At the bigger prices available this morning, I'm prepared to pay to find out.

What about Necromancer?

She's probably the most fascinating runner in the race.

Her first two starts came on much quicker ground before she improved dramatically to win over an extended seven furlongs at Beverley on heavy ground.

Now she gets soft ground again.

TimeWise likes that performance enormously: her latest-race figure of 88.9 is the highest LR figure in the field, and she ranks second overall.

But the HRB Daily Speed Tool tells a very different story.

Necromancer ranks last of nine on its overall rating, with a career-best figure of only 63.44.

That creates an important handicapping question.

Did Beverley reveal a genuinely improved filly who needs soft ground, or did she simply dominate rivals who coped with the heavy conditions less effectively?

We don't know.

At around 6/1 or shorter, I don't think we're being paid enough to resolve that uncertainty with a bet. But she's certainly dangerous, and Timeform also regards further rain as a positive.

One Shot Kodi versus Diplomata

The Haydock rematch is another important piece of the puzzle.

One Shot Kodi looked as though she might have stolen that race before Diplomata finally escaped traffic and ran her down.

One Shot Kodi is now 6 lb better off.

Normally that would make a one-length defeat particularly interesting.

The problem is that the margin doesn't adequately describe Diplomata's performance. She lost momentum at important stages and was much better than the bare result.

So I'm not convinced the weight swing is sufficient to reverse the placings.

More importantly from a betting perspective, neither of our two HRB models is especially enthusiastic about One Shot Kodi.

She ranks seventh on Daily Speed and sixth on TimeWise.

At around 5/1, she's shorter than I'd want.

Don't completely ignore Bai Tong

At a much bigger price, Bai Tong is worth mentioning.

Her bare form of 5-2-7 doesn't scream handicap winner and she returns from 109 days off.

But there are little pieces of evidence pointing in the other direction.

She's fourth on HRB Daily Speed and fifth on TimeWise, while Karl Burke's recent stable numbers were encouraging on our HRB trainer screen.

She isn't strong enough to become a selection, but she's one I'd watch closely in the market.

The market has moved

There's another important development this morning.

Missouri Waltz was available at 15/2 when we initially analysed the race. Current public prices are now shorter, with roughly 5/1–11/2 showing with bookmakers, although exchange prices may differ.

That's significant because our job isn't merely to find winners.

It's to find occasions where our estimated probability is greater than the probability implied by the price.

My 100% tissue has Missouri Waltz around 4/1, with Diplomata approximately 5/2–3/1 territory and Necromancer around 5/1–6/1.

So the original 15/2 Missouri Waltz was a very different betting proposition from 5/1.

That's exactly why recording the price at which a selection was made matters.

The Verdict

Diplomata is the likeliest winner, but Missouri Waltz is the betting proposition.

Diplomata has compelling form credentials and could easily prove capable of overcoming her 10 lb rise. But around 11/8 leaves virtually no room for error.

Missouri Waltz gives us something different.

HRB Daily Speed: #1

TimeWise: #1

TimeWise Horse component: #1

TimeWise Speed component: #1

TimeWise Today component: #1

Lightly raced: yes

Return to a more suitable trip: yes

When independent strands of evidence begin converging on the same horse while the market prefers another, that's when I become interested.

Musical Times: When the Clock Confirms What the Eye Saw ⏱️🏇⤵️👇

Sometimes a two-year-old wins impressively and the temptation is to get carried away. Big margins make good headlines, but they don't necessarily make exceptional horses.

Musical Times' victory in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster deserves a closer look because, this time, several independent pieces of evidence point in the same direction.

Charlie Appleby's filly didn't simply win the Group 2. She travelled through the race like the best horse, accelerated when William Buick asked her and put 7½ lengths between herself and Scommessa Sicura.

The visual impression screamed quality.

But let's put the replay to one side and investigate the numbers.

The headline time doesn't tell the whole story

Musical Times covered Doncaster's mile in 1:37.58 on ground officially described as good to soft.

The Racing Post reports that as 0.98 seconds slower than standard.

Taken literally, that doesn't sound extraordinary.

But standard times are only useful when placed in context. Look at the Racing Post comparisons for the eight races on the Doncaster card:

+0.34, +0.26, +0.31, +0.00, +0.12, +0.36, +0.49 and +0.12 seconds per furlong.

The median was approximately +0.29 sec/f.

Musical Times was only +0.12 sec/f.

So although she was nominally slower than Racing Post standard, she was considerably faster relative to standard than the typical performance on the card.

That's our first clue.

HRB gives us another perspective

I then ran the race through HorseRaceBase's Standard Time Calculator.

For Doncaster over the exact mile, using the historical data and our selected weighting of overall, class, going and class/going medians, HRB produces a Class 1, good-to-soft standard of 100.51 seconds.

Musical Times ran 97.58.

That's:

2.93 seconds faster than the HRB contextual standard.

There's an interesting historical comparison too.

Last year's May Hill, also Class 1 over the same mile on officially good-to-soft ground, was run in 99.79 seconds.

Musical Times ran 97.58.

That's 2.21 seconds quicker.

Different days can never be compared literally without accounting for conditions, but it gives some perspective to what she achieved.

Then come the sectionals

This is where the performance becomes particularly interesting.

A fast overall time can sometimes be misleading. A horse can be dragged through an overly aggressive gallop, record a big time figure and stagger home.

Conversely, spectacular closing sectionals can be produced after a crawl.

We want overall speed combined with efficient energy distribution.

Musical Times gave us both.

The race's closing two furlongs were:

24.0 seconds — 101.6% finishing speed.

Musical Times individually recorded:

23.9 seconds — 102.1%.

Our earlier furlong-by-furlong analysis was even more revealing.

Her final furlong was approximately 12.23 seconds.

Scommessa Sicura: 13.05

Speckles: 13.05

That's roughly 0.82 seconds between Musical Times and the second and third over the final furlong alone.

The important part isn't simply that she finished faster.

Her sectional profile remained remarkably close to the historical efficiency par throughout the race. She wasn't crawling early and sprinting late; nor was she being emptied by an unsustainable gallop.

She was travelling efficiently and still had acceleration available when the race was decided.

That's the hallmark I find particularly interesting.

What about the horses behind?

We shouldn't pretend every piece of form is bombproof.

Sea Of Rain scoped dirty afterwards. Beguiled hung badly left. Ballyskeagh ran well below expectations.

And Racing Post described the race as perhaps not the deepest May Hill of recent years.

Those are legitimate negatives.

But Scommessa Sicura is the important reference point.

She entered with an official rating of 97, raced prominently, finished second and Racing Post's assessment was that she essentially ran her race — she simply had no answer to the winner.

Musical Times arrived rated 93.

She beat that 97-rated benchmark by 7½ lengths.

Whatever precise figure eventually gets attached to the performance, 93 plainly no longer describes her ability.

The most revealing comment came afterwards

Charlie Appleby highlighted something that the numbers had already told us.

He talked about Musical Times possessing significant natural pace, travelling up to the leaders and, crucially, accelerating.

That's interesting because trainer opinion and objective evidence have arrived independently at essentially the same conclusion.

Appleby has also confirmed the Fillies' Mile as the next target and went as far as saying he sees Musical Times as more naturally suited to becoming a 1,000 Guineas filly than his previous May Hill winner Desert Flower was at the corresponding stage.

That's some comparison.

Desert Flower went from the May Hill to the Fillies' Mile, won the 1,000 Guineas the following spring and subsequently finished third in the Oaks.

Nobody should assume Musical Times will reproduce that career.

But the intended path tells us how highly Godolphin regard her.

So, did we see a Group 1 filly?

We can't know yet.

That's racing.

But we can price the evidence.

Visual impression: strong.

Winning margin: strong.

Form benchmark: strong.

Overall time relative to the card: strong.

HRB contextual time: very strong.

Sectional efficiency: strong.

Acceleration: strong.

When several largely independent measures all point in the same direction, our confidence should increase.

My conclusion is therefore stronger than simply saying “Musical Times was impressive.”

There is substantial evidence that the May Hill was the performance of a genuine Group 1-quality two-year-old.

The Fillies' Mile should tell us considerably more.

Erdenali Breaks Through in the Moulin – A Proper Group 1 Mile Performance 🏇⤵️👇

Erdenali announced himself as a genuine top-level miler with an authoritative victory in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.

The three-year-old beat Ten Bob Tony by 1¼ lengths, with another three lengths back to Gstaad in third, and did so in a track-record time of 1m 33.01s.

My private performance rating for Erdenali is 124.

That puts him firmly in high-class territory and makes this one of the stronger mile performances of the season without pushing the figure into elite 130+ territory.

Erdenali: 124

This was a substantial step forward from Erdenali's pre-race official rating of 109.

He travelled in touch with the leaders, moved into contention two furlongs out and took over inside the final furlong before running on strongly.

The key to the form is Ten Bob Tony.

He came into the race rated 121 and ran another solid race, travelling from the rear and briefly disputing the lead before being outpointed by the winner.

I have Ten Bob Tony running to 121, which gives the result a reliable anchor.

Erdenali beat him decisively enough to merit 124.

The Weight Difference Matters

Erdenali was receiving weight as a three-year-old.

He carried 8st 13lb, while Ten Bob Tony carried 9st 4lb.

That 5lb difference prevents the 1¼-length margin from being interpreted too aggressively.

This is why I would not jump straight to a 128 or 130 figure despite the visual impression and record time.

The winner was clearly superior on the day, but the conditions already favoured him at the weights.

A 124 rating recognises the quality of the performance without losing discipline.

The Clock Supports the Form

The time is a major positive.

Erdenali stopped the clock at 1m 33.01s, reported as a Longchamp track record.

The supplied closing sectional is also interesting.

The race's closing two furlongs were run in 23.5sec, while Erdenali covered his own final two furlongs in 22.2sec.

That is strong evidence that he was not simply hanging on after sitting behind an overly aggressive pace.

He finished his race properly.

Time alone should never determine the rating, but in this case it reinforces what the form already suggests.

Ten Bob Tony Gives the Form Substance

Ten Bob Tony deserves plenty of credit.

He was positioned at the rear before making progress on the outside and briefly looked as though he might take control.

He kept on well after Erdenali passed him and still finished three lengths clear of Gstaad.

That is important.

If the runner-up had collapsed after challenging, the winner's margin would be less trustworthy.

Instead, Ten Bob Tony sustained his effort and ran very close to his established level.

My figure for him is 121.

That makes him the most useful horse in the race for assessing Erdenali.

Gstaad Was Below His Best

Gstaad finished third but did not reproduce anything like his pre-race rating of 125.

He raced prominently, was outpaced two furlongs out and only regained third late.

The post-race comments suggested he may have needed the run after suffering a deep cut following the Sussex Stakes.

That may explain the below-par effort, but it does not change what he achieved here.

I have him at 114.

The mistake would be to use his 125 OR as an anchor and inflate the first two accordingly.

He simply did not run to that level.

Opera Ballo Paid for Racing Keenly

Opera Ballo also underperformed.

He took a strong hold, disputed the lead and then went on before weakening late.

That race shape was never likely to help him.

His pre-race OR of 123 is irrelevant to the figure he actually achieved on the day.

I have him at 110.

Again, that is a performance rating, not a judgement that his true ability has suddenly fallen to 110.

The Ratings

Horse| Rating

Erdenali| 124

Ten Bob Tony| 121

Gstaad| 114

Opera Ballo| 110

Nighttime| 108

Dreamliner| 101

Dorset| 92

The important feature is the separation at the top.

Erdenali and Ten Bob Tony pulled well clear of the rest, and both have figures that make sense relative to their established form.

That gives the race a solid backbone.

Race Rating: 122

I have the Prix du Moulin itself at 122.

That is slightly below Erdenali's individual figure because the race loses depth after the first two.

The first pair produced strong Group 1 form.

The horses behind them did not.

That distinction matters.

A race does not become a 125-plus event simply because the winner runs to that level.

How Good Is Erdenali?

The evidence says he is a proper high-class miler.

A 124 performance puts him comfortably above ordinary Group 2 level and within reach of the top end of the division.

The track-record time is encouraging.

The strong finish is encouraging.

And the fact he beat a reliable 121-rated older horse gives the form credibility.

What we do not yet have is proof that he belongs among the elite 130-plus milers.

That may come later.

For now, the right figures are:

Erdenali: 124

Ten Bob Tony: 121

Prix du Moulin: 122

This was a strong Group 1 mile with a convincing winner.

And Erdenali now looks very much like the real thing.