The Acomb has the familiar look of a juvenile Pattern race where the central question is whether the horses with the best form can hold off those with greater potential. Haffner sets the standard, Alfred Wallace isn't far behind him, while Gentle Hurricane's position near the head of the market is based much more on what he might be than what he has actually achieved.
Haffner brings the strongest form. He progressed from an encouraging Curragh debut to win his Newmarket maiden comfortably from the front, before taking a considerable step forward when beaten less than a length in the Group 2 at Goodwood. He travelled prominently there, took over inside the final furlong and was only caught late. I've rated that performance 107, and there is little reason to regard it as anything other than solid Pattern form.
He also recorded his best speed figure at Goodwood, so the form and time evidence point in the same direction. There was no obvious hard-luck story — he simply ran a very good race. The question at 6/4 is whether he improves again or merely reproduces it. He may not need to improve.
Alfred Wallace is the obvious alternative on established ability and looks more interesting than his 8/1 price would suggest. His career has been less straightforward, but he showed considerably more when fifth in a Newmarket Group 2 before producing a strong late run to win a Listed race at Ascot.
That Ascot victory deserves respect. Held up towards the rear and briefly short of room, he made his ground before finishing strongly enough to lead near the line. I've rated him 105, just a couple of pounds below Haffner. His speed figures are also persuasive: his peak of 89.81 is actually marginally higher than Haffner's best.
The reservation is the depth of that Listed race. Its median OR was only 86 and there isn't yet much subsequent evidence to strengthen the form. Even so, Alfred Wallace has now produced two performances suggesting he belongs in this company. At the prices, the difference between him and Haffner looks greater in the market than it does on the track.
Gentle Hurricane is a completely different proposition. He has raced only once, winning a five-runner Salisbury novice over 6f. He travelled prominently, went on over a furlong out and, having been challenged, asserted again near the finish. There was plenty to like about the manner of it.
I've rated the performance only 87, however, because there simply isn't enough evidence to go higher. He beat four horses in a Class 4 novice and the subsequent evidence is negligible. Against that, lightly raced juveniles can make enormous jumps between their first and second starts, and he may have had considerably more in reserve than the bare form indicates.
The difficulty is price. At around 7/2, you're being asked to pay today for much of that potential. He needs something approaching a 20 lb jump on my scale to reach Haffner's demonstrated level. He may make it, but it has to be taken largely on trust.
Big Cigar is more exposed. His York nursery victory was a good performance under 9-9 and established him around the mid-90s on my figures. He subsequently finished seventh in a Goodwood Group 2, beaten five lengths, and I'd actually regard that as a slight career-best at 95–96. The speed figure supports that interpretation.
There was no obvious excuse at Goodwood, though. He was asked for his effort and simply couldn't go with the principals before fading. Stepping up to 7f is another unknown. He's already shown he handles York, but on established ability he needs roughly another 10 lb to trouble the two form principals.
Of the remainder, Vega King is worth examining closely given his relative lack of exposure, while Clash Of Hearts has produced speed figures better than an 80/1 price might imply. Neither can be promoted to the level of the principals without stronger form evidence. Fuel The Jet, Stardom Glory, Siouxperb and Trean similarly have improvement to find on what they've shown so far.
The withdrawal of Confucius removes another horse with an established three-figure official rating and leaves the race looking slightly less deep.
Private ratings
Horse| Rating
Haffner| 107–108
Alfred Wallace| 104–105
Big Cigar| 95–96
Gentle Hurricane| 87+
The race therefore boils down to achievement against potential.
Haffner is the rightful favourite. His Goodwood second is the strongest piece of form in the field and a reproduction should make him difficult to beat. There is no need to invent further improvement to make his case.
Gentle Hurricane could ultimately be the best horse in the race, but at 7/2 the market is already making a substantial assumption about what lies beneath his Salisbury victory.
The horse who interests me most at the prices is Alfred Wallace. He doesn't need a dramatic leap forward: something close to his Ascot performance puts him firmly in the argument, and his speed figures independently support that conclusion.
Haffner is the horse to beat; Alfred Wallace looks the more interesting price. Gentle Hurricane is the fascinating unknown, but he's being priced on promise rather than proof.
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