The BetMGM Atalanta Stakes has received a Level 4 historical signal from HorseRaceBase’s Big Race Trend Hunter.
That tells us the previous editions have produced a useful collection of recurring factors, although the trends should still be treated as supporting evidence—not a substitute for studying form, pace, conditions and price.
This year, three runners stand apart from the field: Kon Tiki, Calendar Girl and So Regal.
Kon Tiki is the strongest trend horse
Kon Tiki leads the table with 14 matched trends, more than any other runner, and an Overall Fit score of 10.84.
That is the strongest historical profile in the race.
Available at around 4/1, she also sits in an interesting part of the market. She is short enough to be considered a leading contender but not so short that the trends have already been completely squeezed out of the price.
On this evidence, Kon Tiki is not merely a horse with plenty going for her on paper. She closely resembles the type that has traditionally succeeded in the Atalanta Stakes.
Of course, matching 14 signals does not prove that she is the best filly in this particular field. It does, however, leave very little resistance from the historical side.
Calendar Girl is nearly her equal
Calendar Girl matches 12 trends and records an Overall Fit of 10.44, only narrowly behind Kon Tiki.
At around 3/1, she is the shortest-priced horse in the field—and the trends largely support her position near the head of the market.
The comparison between the two is revealing:
Horse| Approx. odds| Trends| Overall Fit
Kon Tiki| 4/1| 14| 10.84
Calendar Girl| 3/1| 12| 10.44
There is very little between them on Overall Fit, but Kon Tiki matches two additional signals and is available at the bigger price.
Calendar Girl clearly fits the historical mould. The question is whether she deserves to be shorter than Kon Tiki once their form, conditions and likely race positions are examined.
So Regal is the value-shaped runner
The most interesting horse at the prices could be So Regal.
She matches 12 trends, the same number as Calendar Girl, and receives an Overall Fit score of 8.64. That places her comfortably third in the historical rankings and well clear of the remaining runners.
The difference is that So Regal is available at around 7/1.
Her score is not quite as strong as those of Kon Tiki or Calendar Girl, so the trends are not saying that she should necessarily be favourite. They are saying that her historical profile is considerably stronger than that of several horses trading at shorter prices.
That is where Trend Hunter becomes most useful. Its real value is not simply confirming the obvious horses—it is identifying the runner whose profile may be stronger than her odds suggest.
So Regal fits that description.
Secret Of Life and Moon Target are tied
Secret Of Life and Moon Target both record an Overall Fit of 6.35, despite reaching that figure through slightly different profiles.
Secret Of Life matches six trends, while Moon Target matches seven. Both are trading at around 4/1 to 9/2, placing them firmly among the leading market contenders.
Their scores are respectable, but there is a noticeable gap between them and the leading trio:
- Kon Tiki — 10.84
- Calendar Girl — 10.44
- So Regal — 8.64
- Secret Of Life — 6.35
- Moon Target — 6.35
That does not make either filly a weak contender. Current form and future potential may easily outweigh historical alignment, particularly in a Group 3 involving progressive horses.
However, anyone backing them at relatively short prices is relying much more heavily on the conventional form case. The race trends do not support them as strongly as they support Kon Tiki, Calendar Girl or So Regal.
Noche Clasica is the outsider with some support
At around 18/1, Noche Clasica matches eight trends and scores 6.12.
That figure puts her close to Secret Of Life and Moon Target, despite being available at approximately four times their prices.
This makes her the most interesting of the bigger outsiders through the trend lens.
There may be sound form reasons for the market’s lack of enthusiasm, and eight trends alone cannot overcome a clear ability deficit. Nevertheless, she has enough historical compatibility to justify a closer examination before being dismissed.
She could be relevant to place markets or exotics if her recent form and race conditions offer additional encouragement.
The trends oppose the remaining outsiders
Pacific Mission matches only three trends and records a score of 3.10. Below her, Maeva scores 1.88, Cap Santa Lucia 1.12 and Love Dynasty just 0.95.
None of that makes victory impossible. Trends describe what has usually happened, not what must happen.
Even so, these runners would be breaking away from the established profile of an Atalanta Stakes winner. They require compelling evidence elsewhere to compensate for their weak historical alignment.
What is the market missing?
The trends produce a fairly clear order:
1. Kon Tiki — strongest profile and a fair enough price.
2. Calendar Girl — very solid historically, although already well found.
3. So Regal — slightly weaker fit but potentially the best value.
4. Secret Of Life and Moon Target — credible contenders without the same historical strength.
5. Noche Clasica — the outsider worth investigating further.
Kon Tiki is the pure trends selection. She leads on both the number of signals and Overall Fit while offering a slightly bigger price than Calendar Girl.
But So Regal is the one who may be underestimated. She matches as many meaningful trends as Calendar Girl and sits comfortably ahead of Secret Of Life and Moon Target, yet she is priced at around 7/1.
Trend verdict
Strongest historical fit: Kon Tiki
Best-supported favourite: Calendar Girl
Potential trend value: So Regal
Interesting outsider: Noche Clasica
The trends have drawn a line through the field. Kon Tiki and Calendar Girl look like proper Atalanta candidates, but So Regal is close enough historically—and sufficiently bigger in price—to ensure this is not merely a two-filly conversation.
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