This is a much more interesting handicap than the betting suggests.
Massimo Blue is the obvious one. He won over this course and distance 11 days ago, escapes a penalty, gets Billy Loughnane and sits right at the top of the RapidView picture.
Easy enough.
But when one horse has everything in plain sight, the real question is whether the price has already swallowed the edge.
And in this race, I think it probably has.
Massimo Blue — very solid, very obvious
There is plenty to like.
RapidView gives him strong recent numbers, a 40% track strike-rate, 40% track-and-distance strike-rate, and a 33% figure over the trip in recent runs.
Dylan Cunha is also in decent form, while Billy Loughnane's numbers are strong across virtually every jockey category.
Then we go to the actual form.
Last time at Southwell:
OR 65
TS 49
RPR 74
That is the key historical comparison.
He raced from 65 and produced an RPR of 74.
Now the important bit: he escapes a penalty, so he runs from 65 again.
That is a genuine positive.
We are not comparing today's top-of-card RPR with his OR. We are using the actual form-line figures from the race he won.
And that run says he performed well above his current mark.
So yes, Massimo Blue is very hard to knock.
But at around 9/4, none of this is a secret.
He is the likeliest winner.
I am just not convinced he is the best bet.
Miraculous — the form is stacking up
Miraculous is probably the strongest danger.
Two starts ago he won over this C&D from OR 69:
OR 69
TS 69
RPR 78
That is solid evidence.
Then six days ago at Hamilton:
OR 74
TS 68
RPR 78
Same RPR again.
That matters.
He has stepped up from 69 to 74 and is still running to a similar level.
Today he is off 74 again.
RapidView also likes the profile. He has a 67% class strike-rate and 67% distance/class strike-rate.
That is a strong combination.
The concern is simple: unlike Massimo Blue, he is no longer obviously ahead of the handicapper.
He looks fairly treated rather than thrown in.
At around 7/2, though, he is absolutely entitled to be there.
Fenlander — this is the one I like
Now we get to Fenlander.
RapidView likes him a lot.
His recent record jumps out:
60% last five
50% over 90 days
67% with today's jockey
33% over the distance in recent runs
And Pam Sly's stats are excellent in the relevant categories:
25% over 90 days
18% over the distance
43% distance/class
That is a very strong setup.
But more importantly, the historical form backs it up.
His Nottingham win:
OR 72
TS 75
RPR 80
His Leicester win before that:
OR 63
TS 67
RPR 77
And the win before that:
OR 59
TS 54
RPR 67
This horse has improved rapidly.
Today he runs from 73.
That means his latest winning performance off 72 produced an RPR of 80, and he is only 1lb higher now.
That is exactly the kind of comparison we want.
He was beaten at Newmarket last time, but even there he ran RPR 70 from OR 74.
So he did not completely collapse.
Back in a Class 5, with his stable numbers strong and with a good Southwell profile, I think he is very interesting.
At around 5/1, he looks more appealing to me than Massimo Blue at half the price.
Jenever — boring can be beautiful
Jenever is not fashionable, but he keeps running decent races.
At Nottingham:
OR 72
TS 73
RPR 79
That is a strong piece of form.
Today he is off 72 again.
So we have clear evidence that he can run above today's mark.
His latest fourth at Carlisle was respectable enough:
OR 73
RPR 70
Nothing spectacular, but he remains competitive.
He is also a C&D winner.
RapidView does not light up for him, although there are some decent bits and pieces, including a 33% monthly figure.
At 10/1–11/1, I would not rule him out.
He is the kind of horse who can run well without anyone getting excited about him beforehand.
Daytona Lady — better than the price
This is another interesting one.
Last time at Catterick:
OR 63
TS 37
RPR 71
She ran eight pounds above her mark on RPR.
Today she is off 63 again.
That is meaningful.
She has also been second twice in recent months, including at Wolverhampton off 64 with RPR 72.
RapidView gives her a few respectable figures, including 20% track/class.
Nothing spectacular.
But the form tells us she can be competitive from this rating.
At 12/1–14/1, she is more interesting than the market implies.
Flash Rascal — better historical form than recent form
Flash Rascal was disappointing on stable debut at Doncaster.
No point dressing it up.
But earlier in the year he won at Haydock from OR 69:
OR 69
TS 58
RPR 73
Today he is off 73.
So the handicapper has him roughly where that form says he should be.
RapidView likes the jockey/trainer combination: Silvestre De Sousa and David Loughnane are operating at 31% together.
That is a positive.
But he needs to leave the last run behind.
At around 10/1–12/1, he is possible rather than compelling.
Azure Zain — capable, but needs to bounce back
Go back to Ascot in May.
Azure Zain won from OR 73 and produced:
TS 74
RPR 82
That is a strong performance.
Today he runs from 75.
So on that piece of form alone, he is certainly capable.
The issue is what came afterwards.
Two disappointing runs, with RPRs of 58 and 69.
RapidView has a few positives, including Warren Fentiman's current form.
But the horse himself has questions to answer.
At 10/1–12/1, I could understand anyone taking a chance.
He is not for me unless the market speaks positively.
Brazen Idol — one old run gives him a chance
At Ffos Las in June:
OR 70
TS 66
RPR 79
That was a good effort.
Today he is off 69.
So yes, there is evidence he can be competitive from this rating.
The problem is the two runs since.
Neither really built on it.
RapidView says he has a 21% career strike-rate, and there are some positives in the "Days" and favourite categories, but he is not arriving in compelling form.
At around 16/1+, he is not impossible.
He just needs something to spark him.
Bergerac — sliding mark, but form still says no
Bergerac has fallen a long way.
He was rated 90 last autumn.
Now he is off 74.
That looks tempting until you examine the recent figures.
RPRs:
71
52
49
11
70
The mark has collapsed because the form has.
That is exactly why we should not automatically equate "lower mark" with "well handicapped".
He may bounce back eventually.
But nothing here says today has to be the day.
Escape Plan — signs of life
Escape Plan is a little more interesting than the price suggests.
Last time at Wolverhampton:
OR 68
TS 61
RPR 69
That is basically running to his mark.
Earlier in the year he won at Kempton from 67 with RPR 70.
So he is competitive enough from 68.
RapidView gives Tom Ward excellent Southwell figures: 25% at the track and 25% trainer/track-distance.
That catches my eye.
At around 16/1–18/1, he is a possible sleeper.
Not one I would rush to back, but not one I would dismiss either.
The race shape
Massimo Blue is likely to be popular because everything is obvious.
Recent C&D winner.
No penalty.
Billy Loughnane.
Strong RapidView profile.
And that is all perfectly fair.
But the horse I keep coming back to is Fenlander.
He has shown genuine progression.
He has repeatedly posted historical RPRs above the marks he was racing from.
His current mark of 73 still looks manageable.
And the RapidView trainer/jockey numbers reinforce the form case.
That is the sweet spot.
Not one good number.
Not one trainer stat.
Not one old performance.
A few different strands all pointing the same way.
My view
Most likely winner: MASSIMO BLUE
Best value: FENLANDER — interesting around 5/1+
Danger: MIRACULOUS
Big-price each-way type: DAYTONA LADY — 12/1+
Massimo Blue is the horse everyone can see.
Fenlander is the horse I think the price still lets us bet.
And that distinction matters.
Because in handicapping, the aim is not simply to find the likeliest winner.
It is to find the horse whose chance is bigger than the market thinks.
In this one, that horse may just be Fenlander.
No comments:
Post a Comment