The Melrose is often described as an Ebor for three-year-olds, and that feels particularly apt this year. Seventeen improving stayers, £92,772 to the winner and a searching mile and three-quarters on good-to-soft ground. This is not simply about who has the most ability. It is about who can travel, settle and still have something left when York begins asking serious questions.
Limestone arrives with the sort of profile that jumps off the page. Four consecutive victories have carried Joseph O'Brien's colt to a mark of 105 and he has Ryan Moore aboard. There is no mystery about his progression — he keeps winning — but now comes the examination. He shoulders 9st 9lb in one of the most competitive staying handicaps of the season. At around 7/2, you're paying handsomely to find out where his ceiling lies.
Infraad is perhaps the more intriguing horse at the head of the market. William Haggas has won this race before and his colt has won two of five while never finishing outside the first three. A mark of 97 demands another step forward, but the impression remains that stamina rather than speed could ultimately prove his strongest suit. Tom Marquand rides and 9st 1lb looks a much friendlier burden than Limestone's top weight. At 11/4, though, the market hasn't missed him either.
Into The Light brings the Appleby-Buick combination and comes here after winning last time. He has already shown enough ability to reach 96 after only five starts, and that lightly raced profile is precisely what you want in a Melrose contender. The question is whether 1m6f unlocks another chunk of improvement. If it does, 17/2 could look perfectly reasonable.
Then we reach one I particularly like.
Mythical Bay has quietly put together a formidable CV. His recent figures read 1-1-3-2 and he has won three of eight overall. More importantly, he is already a winner at the distance and has also won on good-to-soft ground. Andrew Balding knows exactly what is required here — he won last year's Melrose with Tarriance — and Oisin Murphy takes over. From stall three, carrying 8st 10lb off 92, there is very little about his setup that needs explaining away.
At 6/1, Mythical Bay looks one of the most solid combinations of proven stamina, current form and handicap position.
Galilean Quality is another fascinating improver. Four wins from eight and three victories from five this season tell their own story, while he has already won over the distance. Karl Burke's gelding has climbed to 91 but carries only 8st 9lb. At 14/1, he makes considerably more appeal to me than several horses shorter in the betting.
The potential fly in the ointment is Glory Road at 20/1. Ralph Beckett's colt has only raced four times, finishing in the first three every time, and his record on good-to-soft or similar testing ground is encouraging. He's drawn widest in 17 and has yet to tackle this distance, but that is exactly why you're getting the price. If the extra half-mile brings improvement rather than exposing him, an opening mark of 88 may underestimate him.
Willie Mullins sends Sharkeyboy across and nobody needs reminding what that yard can do with a staying handicapper. Four starts have yielded two seconds without a victory, meaning there is still considerable uncertainty about what he is capable of. Stall two and just 8st 6lb are useful weapons. At 15/2, however, plenty of the Mullins factor is already incorporated into the price.
Bay Of Stars deserves respect at 10/1. Dermot Weld rarely sends horses into races of this nature without good reason, and this colt remains relatively unexposed after only four starts. A mark of 86 and 8st 4lb give him room to improve into the race rather than needing to dominate it.
For something considerably bigger, My Ballyquinn catches the eye at 33/1. His recent sequence of 1-2-1-2 is difficult to fault and, unlike several fashionable improvers, we already know he stays. He has won over the course, won over the distance and carries only 8st 7lb. His rating of 89 may ultimately find him out against better-bred improvers, but 33/1 looks dismissive of a horse who keeps doing his job.
Probation is another 40/1 shot worth mentioning. Back-to-back victories have pushed him to 84, but Harry Vigors' 5lb claim effectively leaves him carrying a feather weight. Stall 16 isn't ideal and this is an enormous rise in competitive intensity, but he is progressing rather than regressing — an important distinction in this race.
This looks a Melrose where the obvious horses are obvious for good reason, but the prices at the top leave little room for error. Limestone may simply be better than these, yet asking a three-year-old to concede significant weight to a field packed with improvers is enough to make 7/2 unattractive.
Mythical Bay gets the vote. He has already answered two of the questions others still have to answer — the trip and the ground — while his current form, low draw, manageable weight and Balding-Murphy combination make a compelling package.
Galilean Quality looks the value alternative at 14/1, while My Ballyquinn is the big-priced runner I wouldn't want to leave completely uncovered.
Verdict: MYTHICAL BAY
Main danger: INFRAAD
Value danger: GALILEAN QUALITY — 14/1
Big-price dark horse: MY BALLYQUINN — 33/1
The Melrose specialises in producing horses who look well handicapped afterwards. The trick, as ever, is finding them before everybody knows.
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