This is a proper little Class 4.
Eleven runners over seven furlongs at Southwell, a mix of progressive three-year-olds, hardened handicappers and a few horses who are much better on the all-weather than their recent turf form suggests.
And this is exactly where HorseRaceBase RapidView and the Racing Post card can work together nicely.
RapidView tells us who has the statistical profile.
The Racing Post form tells us who has actually been running well enough to justify it.
The market, as always, tells us whether we’ve missed the boat.
Mr Noble — the obvious one
Mr Noble is favourite and it isn’t hard to see why.
He was beaten only a head at York last time and that was a strong effort:
OR 80
TS 80
RPR 88
That is a proper historical form-line comparison.
He ran from 80 and produced an RPR eight pounds higher.
Today he runs from 84.
So the handicapper has reacted, but not outrageously.
RapidView also likes the setup. Karl Burke is strong across just about every relevant trainer category:
20% over the year, 20% at Southwell, 19% over the trip, 20% at the class.
That is a nice supporting layer.
He is also still lightly raced and clearly open to more improvement.
The problem is price.
At around 7/4–2/1, you are paying for nearly everything that looks good.
He is the most likely winner.
That doesn’t automatically make him the best bet.
Haaderr — back where he belongs
Haaderr interests me because the race conditions look made for him.
He won over this course and distance last October and returns here after a decent third at Doncaster.
That Doncaster run reads:
OR 85
TS 73
RPR 85
So he ran exactly to his mark.
Today he is off 84.
Nothing flashy, but solid.
RapidView gives him plenty of support too.
Ed Bethell is 25% over the last 30 days and the Bethell/Billy Loughnane partnership is operating at a striking 33%.
Loughnane himself has strong figures across multiple categories.
The caveat is pace.
The Racing Post notes that Haaderr made all when winning over C&D and may not get things all his own way today.
That matters.
If he is forced to work for the lead, his chance reduces.
At around 3/1, he looks fair rather than generous.
Chalk Mountain — quietly solid
This one might be easier to overlook than he should be.
Chalk Mountain is already a course-and-distance winner and was second here in July.
That run is interesting:
OR 81
TS 66
RPR 89
That is a strong effort.
He is off 82 today.
So he has already produced an RPR comfortably above his current mark at this very track and trip.
That matters far more to me than the top-of-card RPR.
RapidView also likes the jockey setup.
Hector Crouch has excellent recent and track figures, and Chalk Mountain himself has a solid 33% distance/class strike-rate.
At around 5/1–6/1, I think he starts becoming very interesting.
He doesn’t need to improve much.
He just needs to reproduce something close to that Southwell run.
Pietro — better than the price suggests
Pietro is another who deserves respect.
His Wolverhampton win in March produced:
OR 82
TS 67
RPR 90
He then ran third at Chester from OR 84 and posted RPR 86.
So we have clear evidence that he can perform to a mid-80s-plus level.
Today he is rated 83.
That is very workable on his best form.
His latest Epsom run was poor, no argument there, but he was in a Class 2 and this is a much more realistic assignment.
RapidView is quietly positive too. James Fanshawe is operating at 22% over 90 days and 18% in the race-type category.
At around 8/1, Pietro looks a much better betting proposition to me than he does on bare recent form.
Master Richard — the reliable one
There are very few horses in this race with a more honest recent profile than Master Richard.
Look at the RPR sequence:
91
91
91
91
That is remarkable consistency.
And the corresponding ORs were:
84
84
85
85
So he has repeatedly performed above his handicap mark.
That is exactly the historical pattern we want to notice.
Today he is off 85 again.
He does not need to improve.
He simply needs to run his race.
He has gone close in each of his last four starts and already has a C&D win to his name.
RapidView is not shouting his name, but the form is doing plenty of shouting on its own.
At around 10/1–12/1, I think he is very interesting.
He is older than most of these and perhaps lacks their upside.
But he also lacks their uncertainty.
King Of Fury — Southwell specialist
RapidView absolutely loves King Of Fury.
His Southwell record is excellent:
75% at the track
100% over track/distance
67% track/class
That is proper specialist territory.
And his form supports it.
His two recent Southwell wins produced:
OR 70 → RPR 81
OR 77 → RPR 86
Today he runs from 79.
So his most recent C&D win is especially relevant.
He won from 77 and produced an RPR of 86.
He is now only 2lb higher.
That is compelling.
The issue is his latest Carlisle run.
He finished ninth and posted only RPR 72.
But I am inclined to treat that with some caution because he is clearly a different horse at Southwell.
Back here, he is 3-3 over C&D.
At 18/1–22/1, now we are talking.
That looks far too big to ignore.
New Image — dangerous if the switch sparks him
This is another horse where the surface may be everything.
New Image has been poor on turf lately.
Very poor, in fact.
But he is 2-2 at Southwell.
That alone deserves attention.
RapidView adds more:
50% at the class, 67% on the going and strong trainer numbers for Michael Herrington, who is 25% over the last 30 days and 24% in distance/class.
He is also making his stable debut.
Now look back to his better form.
At Doncaster in June:
OR 88
TS 73
RPR 91
He is off 78 today.
That is a huge drop in mark since then.
Now, I am not saying he is automatically well handicapped because the intervening form has been dreadful.
But unlike some horses dropping down the ratings, we do have evidence that he was capable of running to a much higher level not that long ago.
At 12/1–14/1, he is dangerous.
Dublin Bay — another who loves the AW
RapidView gives Dublin Bay one of the strongest horse profiles in the field.
31% career strike-rate, 67% over the last three, 40% over the last five, 40% race-type and 67% on the going.
That is strong.
His Wolverhampton win in May was also very good:
OR 75
TS 68
RPR 91
Today he is rated 85.
That is a big rise.
He has gone up 10lb since that win and has been off for three months.
So while the statistical profile is excellent, the handicapper has not ignored him.
At 14/1–18/1, though, I would not dismiss him completely.
Carron — another interesting return to the AW
Carron has an excellent artificial-surface record and RapidView shows a 31% career strike-rate and 67% at the distance.
His Newcastle win in March came from OR 82 and produced RPR 91.
Then last time at Yarmouth:
OR 85
TS 78
RPR 93
That is strong recent evidence.
He races from 86 today.
So he is not obviously thrown in, but he is clearly capable from this sort of mark.
He also changes stable.
At around 16/1, he is not without appeal.
So where is the bet?
Mr Noble is the horse to beat.
That York run is strong, he is improving and the Burke statistics are excellent.
But 7/4 does not excite me.
Haaderr is solid but vulnerable if pressed for the lead.
The horses I keep coming back to are Chalk Mountain, Master Richard and King Of Fury.
Chalk Mountain has already run to RPR 89 from OR 81 over this very C&D.
Master Richard has produced four consecutive RPRs of 91 from marks of 84–85.
And King Of Fury has a ridiculous Southwell profile and won here last month from 77 with an RPR of 86.
At the prices, that matters.
My view
Most likely winner: MR NOBLE
Best value: CHALK MOUNTAIN — interesting at 5/1+
Big-price value: KING OF FURY — very interesting at 18/1+
Solid alternative: MASTER RICHARD — 10/1+
If I had to pick one horse for the bet, I would lean Chalk Mountain.
He has the right track, the right trip, a competitive mark and a recent C&D performance that stands up properly when we compare the historical OR with the RPR achieved.
But the one I would be most annoyed about leaving out is King Of Fury.
Three runs over this course and distance.
Three wins.
Sometimes the cleverest thing you can do is not overcomplicate the obvious.
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