This is exactly the sort of handicap where the market can make a fool of anyone who tries to be too clever.
Thirteen runners, plenty of exposed form, several horses dropping in the weights, a couple arriving in better nick, and just enough excuses in recent runs to make half the field look tempting.
So rather than trying to force a confident answer, the better approach is to ask one simple question:
Which horses have both a credible form case and a price that still gives us something to work with?
HorseRaceBase RapidView gives us the statistical shape of the race.
The Racing Post form gives us the context.
And there are three that catch my eye more than the rest.
Minaun View — the obvious statistical standout
RapidView could hardly be clearer.
Minaun View dominates the horse section.
She has a 33% strike-rate over her last three, 60% over her last five, 33% over the distance, 23% at the class, 50% over the distance/class combination and 38% on the going.
That's a serious block of positives.
She's also been winning.
Three claiming victories this year make the recent form look strong, and the Racing Post quite reasonably says she has to be considered now she's back in handicap company.
But this is where we need to be disciplined.
Her latest win at Gowran came off an OR of 65, with an RPR of 63.
At Ballinrobe she ran off 65 and produced an RPR of 69.
At Killarney she raced from 63 and produced an RPR of 67.
And at Bellewstown, again from 63, she posted an RPR of 71.
That's the run that interests me most.
It shows she has already produced a performance above today's mark of 68.
So there is some substance behind the RapidView enthusiasm.
The concern is obvious enough: most of her recent success has come in claimers rather than handicaps.
That's a different examination.
At around 9/2 she makes sense, but I wouldn't want to go much shorter.
Go Out — solid rather than spectacular
Go Out heads the market and it's easy to see why.
His latest third at Killarney was perfectly respectable.
Historical figures:
OR 63
TS 60
RPR 64
That's almost bang on his mark.
Earlier in the season he ran from 70 at the Curragh and produced RPR 65.
So unlike a few in here, there isn't an obvious chunk of historical ratings evidence saying he's massively well handicapped.
What he does have is consistency.
He's been operating around this level for a while, and Terry Casey's 7lb claim gives him some help.
RapidView is not particularly excited by his horse profile, though Daniel Murphy does have respectable race-type numbers.
He's probably one of the safer runners.
I'm just not convinced he's one of the better bets at around 4/1.
Tofino — this is more interesting
Tofino is the one whose recent form probably deserves a little upgrade.
She was only eighth at the Curragh last time, but she didn't get a clear run.
And the historical figures show that despite the finishing position she still produced:
OR 64
TS 61
RPR 65
In other words, she basically ran to her mark despite things not going perfectly.
That's useful.
Back in June she was second at Limerick from OR 65 and recorded RPR 66.
Again, solid.
She's now racing from 64.
Nothing spectacular there, but she's competitive.
More importantly, her last run probably understates her chance.
At around 9/2–5/1, that makes her more interesting to me than Go Out.
RapidView doesn't scream her name, but this is where the Racing Post form can add something the statistical screen doesn't.
Alto Sax — the handicapper has been generous
This one is fascinating.
Alto Sax is rated only 52 today.
Go back to Fairyhouse in June.
He won from OR 44 and produced an RPR of 53.
Then at Leopardstown:
OR 50
RPR 56
That's six pounds above his mark.
At Killarney:
OR 50
RPR 50
And last time at the Curragh:
OR 52
RPR 51
So the recent evidence says he is somewhere around his current mark.
But there was another excuse last time: he didn't get a clear run.
RapidView also gives him one small positive — his 29% figure under the "Days" category — while Reese Holohan's relevant jockey statistics are respectable.
The question is the mile.
The Racing Post thinks it might be sharp enough.
That worries me.
If this were nine or ten furlongs, I'd probably be keener.
At 7/1–8/1, though, he has enough going for him to make the shortlist.
Bundle Of Interest — the connections jump off the page
This is where RapidView earns its keep.
Bundle Of Interest herself doesn't dominate the horse statistics.
But look at the people involved.
W McCreery:
38% last 7 days
19% last 30 days
Sam Coen:
40% last 7 days
23% last 30 days
19% last 90 days
And together:
57%
That's the strongest jockey/trainer combination in the race.
Now we check whether the form gives us anything.
Last time at the Curragh:
OR 71
TS 69
RPR 72
That's a very solid run.
She's down to 70 today.
So we have a horse who ran essentially to her mark last time, is 1lb lower now, and comes here with exceptionally strong current trainer/jockey statistics.
That is interesting.
The concern is stamina.
The Racing Post raises that directly.
But if she settles and sees the mile out properly, she looks more dangerous than her price suggests.
At around 15/2–8/1, she's one I'd want onside.
Kc Bear — competitive, but ground dependent
Kc Bear is another horse close to his mark.
His Fairyhouse second in July came from OR 64 and produced RPR 65.
Today he's off 65.
That's pretty straightforward.
He has Colin Keane, which is obviously a positive, and RapidView shows 17% in his race-type category.
But the Racing Post warning matters:
he won't want much rain.
On genuinely good ground, he's competitive.
If conditions soften, I'd become much less enthusiastic.
At around 11/2–6/1 he's probably priced about right.
Good Man Jack — the unknown quantity
I can understand why people might take a chance on Good Man Jack.
He's only had four runs and this is just his second handicap.
Last time at Galway:
OR 69
RPR 64
So the handicapper hasn't missed him on what we've seen so far.
But because he's so lightly raced, improvement remains possible.
RapidView doesn't offer a lot of support, though, and at around 13/2–8/1 I wouldn't be rushing in.
He's more "possible improver" than "obvious value".
The big prices
There are a couple of stragglers who aren't completely hopeless.
Nephin Mountain won at Ballinrobe from OR 51 and produced RPR 55.
He's 55 today, so on that evidence he's more or less where he should be.
The concern is the trip. His better form has come over further.
In A Hurry has an old RPR 73 from OR 67 at Catterick, which tells us she has previously performed above today's mark of 67.
But that was over seven furlongs, and today's stiff mile doesn't look ideal on what we've seen.
Bill Silvers is historically well treated on some older form, but his two runs this season have been poor.
And Cordouan, Lohengrin and Marambo simply have too much to prove at present.
So where does that leave us?
The market wants us to choose between Go Out, Minaun View and Tofino.
Of those three, Minaun View has the strongest statistical profile by some distance.
But for betting purposes, I prefer Tofino.
Why?
Because her last run is better than it looks.
She had traffic problems, yet still produced an RPR of 65 from OR 64.
She races from the same mark today.
That's exactly the sort of small hidden positive I like in these low-grade handicaps.
Then there's Bundle Of Interest.
Her last run off 71 produced RPR 72, she drops to 70, and the McCreery/Coen combination is absolutely flying according to RapidView.
If she stays the mile strongly enough, she could easily outrun her price.
My view
Most likely winner: MINAUN VIEW
Best value: TOFINO — interesting around 5/1
Second value play: BUNDLE OF INTEREST — interesting around 8/1
Danger: ALTO SAX
This isn't a race where I want to plant a flag and pretend one horse is miles ahead of the rest.
It's a race where I'd rather side with the runners whose recent form contains something the bare finishing position doesn't show.
And for me, Tofino is the one whose last run deserves upgrading most.
Minaun View owns the RapidView screen.
Tofino might own the better price.
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