Seven runners, six furlongs, good ground and a Class 4 three-year-old handicap that looks straightforward until you start pulling it apart.
At first glance the market says Rogue Attraction, Town Queen and Go Vince Go.
HorseRaceBase RapidView says something similar — but with considerably more enthusiasm about one of them.
Rogue Attraction is absolutely plastered across the RapidView screen.
That makes her the obvious place to start.
Rogue Attraction — everything fits
You'd struggle to manufacture a better RapidView profile.
Rogue Attraction has won 29% of her races, 33% within the last 90 days, 33% at Carlisle, 33% at the distance and an eye-catching 67% distance/class strike-rate.
Even better, today's circumstances reinforce the horse statistics.
Ed Bethell has been operating at 25% over the last 30 days and 18% over 90 days, while Daniel Tudhope is 19% over 30 days and 21% over this distance.
Together Bethell and Tudhope are running at 26%.
That's exactly what RapidView is good at showing us. It isn't one flashy statistic being asked to carry the argument. It's a collection of positives all pointing towards the same runner.
Now let's ask the Racing Post whether the actual form backs it up.
It does.
Rogue Attraction won over this course and distance in July from OR 79.
And here's where our historical ratings comparison becomes useful:
Carlisle, 9 July
OR 79
TS 73
RPR 88
She therefore produced an RPR 9lb higher than the mark from which she raced.
That's a meaningful piece of historical evidence.
The handicapper raised her to 82 and she subsequently finished only seventh of 20 at Goodwood, but that result doesn't tell the whole story. She had trouble getting daylight and still recorded an RPR of 78.
Now she's back at Carlisle.
Back over six furlongs.
Back at the track where she produced that RPR 88.
And still running from 82.
That makes her extremely solid.
The problem is hardly difficult to spot.
She's around 2/1.
We're not the only people who can read.
Town Queen — the dangerous unknown
If Rogue Attraction represents established evidence, Town Queen represents potential.
Her record reads:
2-2-2-1
That's attractive before we examine anything else.
She finally got her head in front at Southwell over six furlongs, and now Karl Burke sends her handicapping from 75.
RapidView likes her too.
She's operating at 25% across several horse categories and 33% over her last three, while Burke's numbers are excellent:
20% one year
33% Carlisle
38% trainer/track-distance
20% class
19% distance/class
That's powerful.
But her historical ratings introduce a little doubt.
At Southwell she raced from an OR of 75 and recorded:
TS 66
RPR 79
So she exceeded her mark on RPR, but only by 4lb.
She's entitled to improve — she's had only four races — but at around 5/2, the market is already charging us for quite a bit of that improvement.
She's dangerous.
I'm just not convinced she's cheap.
Go Vince Go — the handicapper has finally blinked
This one interests me more.
Go Vince Go has been swimming in considerably deeper water.
His recent races include Class 2 three-year-old handicaps at York and a big 20-runner Class 4 at Ripon.
And look what's happened to his mark:
85 → 84 → 82 → 80 → 78 → 77
That's an 8lb slide.
Now look at the historical RPRs:
From OR 85 — RPR 75
From OR 84 — RPR 61
From OR 82 — RPR 78
From OR 80 — RPR 78
From OR 78 — RPR 77
That's interesting.
The horse hasn't suddenly rediscovered some giant piece of form. Something subtler has happened.
His handicap mark has come back to meet his recent level of performance.
At York in July he produced RPR 78 from OR 80.
At Ripon last time he produced RPR 77 from OR 78.
Today?
OR 77.
That looks much more realistic.
He's also dropping from a 20-runner Ripon race into a seven-runner Carlisle handicap.
RapidView isn't screaming his name like it does Rogue Attraction, but there are positives: 17% career strike-rate, 17% around the distance, and his jockey and breeding statistics contain some respectable numbers.
At around 7/2, he's beginning to interest me.
Invincible Boy — the forgotten horse?
Here's another worth thinking about.
Invincible Boy was rated 82 after winning his novice at Pontefract and has subsequently disappointed twice at York.
That doesn't look particularly attractive.
But let's examine the historical figures.
His Pontefract victory produced:
TS 70
RPR 84
He didn't have an official mark displayed on that novice form line, so we shouldn't manufacture an OR comparison that isn't there.
What we do know is that he subsequently went handicapping from 82.
His two handicap performances have been poor:
OR 82 → RPR 52
OR 80 → RPR 62
Now he's down to 78.
That's not evidence that he's well handicapped.
It's evidence that the handicapper is giving him a chance to become competitive again.
There's an important difference.
RapidView provides a little encouragement. He's 33% over his last three and 33% at the class in his recent sample, while the Invincible Army breeding numbers are strong at Carlisle.
He's also still relatively lightly raced.
At 11/2–6/1, I wouldn't completely dismiss him.
But he's a recovery project rather than a horse screaming "well handicapped".
Rikki Tiki Tavi — falling mark for a reason
This is where falling handicap marks can seduce us.
Rikki Tiki Tavi was once rated 85.
He's now 78.
Cheap?
Not necessarily.
His recent historical RPR sequence is:
65 — 59 — 46 — 32
That's going firmly in the wrong direction.
He was beaten 18 lengths on his comeback after wind surgery and has been given another break.
Kevin Stott is riding well, which RapidView identifies, but that's not enough for me.
At around 12/1–14/1 I'd still want stronger evidence of revival.
Kody B — rain dance required
Kody B is another whose mark has collapsed:
81 → 79 → 77 → 77 → 73
His historical RPRs over those races have been:
55 — 65 — 64 — 66
So again, there's no mysterious 80-plus performance hiding underneath the recent form.
However, there is one interesting older run.
At Pontefract last October he won on soft ground with an RPR of 79.
He's now rated 73.
That's the first thing that makes me look twice.
He's also been gelded since his latest appearance.
If the Carlisle rain becomes significant and the ground eases materially, he becomes considerably more interesting at a big price.
On genuinely good ground, I'm less tempted.
Zarvali — the wild card
And finally Zarvali.
Recent form?
Pretty horrible.
But dig back four starts.
At Thirsk:
OR 79
TS 73
RPR 81
That's exactly the sort of historical form-line comparison we're looking for.
Today he's rated 76.
So we have evidence — not speculation — that he has previously produced an RPR above today's handicap mark.
He's now dropping back to six furlongs and cheekpieces go on for the first time.
RapidView doesn't particularly like the horse's current profile, although Callum Shepherd's 33% Carlisle statistic catches the eye.
At 20/1+, he's not impossible.
But you're betting on a revival.
That's very different from betting on current form.
So where does that leave us?
Rogue Attraction is the most likely winner.
RapidView loves her and the historical form backs it up. Her C&D victory from OR 79 produced an RPR of 88 and she's only 3lb higher today.
She's the horse the others have to beat.
But there's an important distinction between best horse and best bet.
At around 2/1, Rogue Attraction doesn't leave us much margin.
Town Queen could be anything, but again we're being asked to pay for potential.
The one whose price interests me most is Go Vince Go.
His mark has finally fallen to approximately the level of his recent performances. He's dropping out of some competitive big-field races into a seven-runner Class 4 and he remains consistent enough to suggest the ability is still there.
He's not "thrown in".
That's not the argument.
The argument is that the handicapper may finally have stopped asking him a question he can't answer.
My view
Most likely winner: ROGUE ATTRACTION
Main danger: TOWN QUEEN
Value play: GO VINCE GO — interesting around 7/2+
Big-price watch: ZARVALI — 20/1+
And this race is a good example of why combining RapidView with the Racing Post historical form works.
RapidView tells us Rogue Attraction has the statistical profile.
The historical RP ratings tell us she has actually produced the performance to support it.
And Go Vince Go demonstrates the other side of handicapping: sometimes we're not looking for a horse capable of running 10lb above its mark.
Sometimes we're simply waiting for the mark to come down to the horse.
That's where the price can start getting interesting.
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