The Round of 32 brings three matches where the favourites are clear, but none are completely safe: England vs DR Congo, Belgium vs Senegal, and USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. All three stronger sides have better squad depth and tournament ceilings, but knockout football changes the risk profile. One slow start, one set piece, or one penalty shootout can flip the whole tie.
England vs DR Congo
England are the strongest favourite of the three matches. Their pre-tournament profile — 10.8% chance to win the World Cup, 47.7% chance to reach the quarter-finals — puts them in the elite tier. DR Congo, by contrast, have already overachieved by reaching this stage after a 52-year absence from the tournament. Their group-stage story included a draw with Portugal, a narrow defeat to Colombia and a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan.
The tactical shape of the match is clear. England should dominate the ball and territory. The danger is whether they can turn control into goals early enough. Thomas Tuchel has already warned England to stay patient against a compact DR Congo side, with the opponent likely to defend deep and frustrate them.
DR Congo’s best hope is to survive the opening pressure, keep the game at 0-0 for as long as possible, and attack through transitions, physical duels and set pieces. They are unlikely to outplay England over 90 minutes, but they can make the game awkward if England become impatient.
Prediction: England 2-0 DR Congo
Best angle: England to qualify
Risk rating: Medium
Belgium vs Senegal
This is the most balanced and dangerous match of the three. Belgium are favourites, but Senegal are not a soft underdog. Belgium topped Group G and come in with momentum after a 5-1 win over New Zealand, while coach Rudi Garcia has a fully fit squad available.
Belgium’s tournament strength anchor is solid rather than elite: 2.4% winner probability and 28.6% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. That makes them a stronger projected side than Senegal, but not by a huge margin. Senegal’s group stage was mixed: defeats to France and Norway, followed by a 5-0 win over Iraq to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams. They are also missing first-choice goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, with Mory Diaw expected to continue.
Tactically, Belgium’s edge is chance creation. Reports noted they led all teams with 73 shots in the group stage, which suggests attacking volume even when performances were uneven. Senegal’s danger is pace, strength and direct running. If Belgium’s older core control the tempo, they should progress. If the match becomes open and transitional, Senegal become much more live.
Prediction: Belgium 2-1 Senegal
Best angle: Belgium to qualify, but not at a very short price
Risk rating: High
USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
The USA are deserved favourites, mainly because of home advantage, athleticism and attacking depth. They topped Group D and now face Bosnia and Herzegovina in their first knockout match. Bosnia’s run is emotionally powerful: this is their first World Cup knockout-stage appearance, and the Bosnian diaspora around Santa Clara is expected to give them strong support.
The USA’s pre-tournament strength profile was useful but not elite: 1.3% winner chance and 19.3% quarter-final chance. That makes them a fringe quarter-final type, not a true title contender. Bosnia are the outsider, but their profile is awkward: organised defence, aerial strength, set pieces and Edin Džeko’s hold-up play.
Christian Pulisic’s fitness is important. He has said he is ready to play 90 minutes or more, despite not having completed a full match in over three months after a calf issue. If he starts and is sharp, the USA’s ceiling rises. If the match becomes slow and physical, Bosnia can drag it into uncomfortable territory.
Prediction: USA 2-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Best angle: USA to qualify
Risk rating: Medium-High
Final Correct Score Predictions
England 2-0 DR Congo
Belgium 2-1 Senegal
USA 2-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
