There are racing statistics that whisper.
There are racing statistics that shout.
And then there are statistics that look like they're shouting until you discover they're based on one winner from two runners.
Welcome to Trainer Stat Attack Extra.
Used badly, it's another page full of percentages.
Used properly, it's a window into something the form book doesn't always show clearly enough:
Which stables are sending out horses ready to do their jobs right now?
And today's figures throw up some fascinating possibilities.
Willie Mullins Isn't Warm. He's Boiling.
Let's start with the number that almost jumps off the screen.
Willie Mullins: 25 runners, 10 winners, 40% strike rate over the last 14 days.
Extend it to 30 days:
92 runners, 29 winners — 32%.
That's important.
Anybody can have a good week. A couple of well-placed favourites win, suddenly the strike rate looks magnificent and Twitter declares the stable "on fire".
But 29 winners from 92 runners isn't statistical froth.
That's a yard operating at serious efficiency.
Which brings Columbus into the conversation in York's 2.25.
He's around 14/1.
Does Mullins being red-hot mean Columbus wins?
Of course not.
But that's not how these statistics should be used.
The question is:
Would I rather investigate a 14/1 chance from a yard running at 40%, or one from a stable struggling to buy a winner?
Exactly.
Trainer form doesn't make the bet.
It tells us where to start digging.
Charlie Appleby Has Broken the Thermometer
Then there's Charlie Appleby.
His numbers are almost ridiculous.
Last 14 days: 8 winners from 19 — 42%.
Last 30 days: 17 from 39 — 44%.
Last year: 102 from 322 — 32%.
Track: 32 from 81 — 40%.
Trainer/jockey: 33 from 79 — 42%.
You could hardly design a cleaner statistical profile.
The trouble?
His runner Al Jabbar is around 4/6.
And there, in one horse, is the difference between finding a positive and finding a bet.
Appleby's numbers are outstanding.
The market knows.
There's no medal for discovering that a 4/6 favourite comes from a successful stable.
Our job is to find something the market might not have priced correctly.
Now Ed Bethell Gets Interesting
This is where my eyes start wandering down the page.
Ed Bethell has had:
28 runners and nine winners over the last fortnight.
That's 32%.
Over 30 days he's 15 from 57 — 26%.
Nothing flimsy about that.
Then look at Hamilton.
Bethell has sent 38 runners there and won with 12.
32%.
And along comes Porth Eilian at around 6/1.
Now we've got something.
A horse at a workable price.
A stable flying.
A trainer with an excellent record at the course.
None of those things proves Porth Eilian is well handicapped, suited by the pace or about to run the race of his life.
But it absolutely earns him another look.
The same applies to Rogue Citation around 5/1.
That's how I want to use this report.
Not:
«32% trainer. Back it.»
But:
«32% trainer. Interesting. What else have we got?»
There's a world of difference.
Haggas: No Fireworks, Just Relentless Quality
William Haggas provides a different lesson.
His figures aren't explosive.
They're almost boringly good.
14 days: 21%.
30 days: 19%.
One year: 21%.
That consistency is beautiful.
This isn't necessarily a yard that's suddenly caught fire.
It's a very good yard continuing to be a very good yard.
At York, Haggas is 21 winners from 97 runners — 22%.
That immediately provides support for Silver Lake, Zennor Storm and Eklleem.
But here's where Stat Attack Extra becomes more interesting than simply looking at trainer form.
Zennor Storm's trainer/jockey combination is:
112 winners from 566 — 20%.
Eklleem's is:
1 from 11 — 9%.
Same trainer.
Same race.
Same excellent stable form.
Different supporting evidence.
That's why you read across the page rather than stopping at the first impressive percentage.
Beware the 100% Superstar
Then we reach one of racing statistics' oldest practical jokes.
100% STRIKE RATE!
Fantastic.
How many runners?
One.
John Butler has a 100% track strike rate attached to Foxy Night at Hamilton.
He's 1 from 1.
File that under:
Nice, but virtually meaningless.
The interesting numbers are elsewhere.
Butler has had six winners from 25 runners over the last fortnight — 24%.
Over the year he's running at 17%.
Now that interests me.
The stable is currently outperforming its longer-term level.
That's potentially useful information.
The same warning applies to Alex Dunn and Oviedo.
A 50% recent strike rate looks magnificent.
Then you notice it's one winner from two runners.
Never fall in love with the percentage before you've met the sample size.
Aidan O'Brien: Green Lights Everywhere
Aidan O'Brien's numbers offer almost the opposite problem.
They're relentlessly strong.
14 days: 23%.
30 days: 23%.
Year: 21%.
York: 21%.
Trainer/jockey: 35%.
August: 22%.
There's barely a red light anywhere.
That provides a strong background for Oklahoma, Mission Central, Marco Polo and Illinois.
Oklahoma is particularly obvious at around 9/4.
But once again, I'm more intrigued when the price gets bigger.
Illinois at 12/1 suddenly becomes interesting enough to investigate.
Not because Aidan O'Brien wins 23% of his races.
Because a double-figure-priced horse from a stable performing strongly across virtually every relevant timeframe deserves respect.
The Numbers I Want to Hunt
This is where Trainer Stat Attack Extra becomes genuinely useful.
I'm not particularly interested in proving that short-priced favourites come from good trainers.
The market usually manages that perfectly well without our assistance.
I'm looking for the intersection of three things:
Hot stable.
Solid sample size.
Interesting price.
And today's page produces several horses that fit the investigation category.
Columbus — 14/1
Willie Mullins operating at 40% over the last fortnight.
Thankfully — 25/1
Karl Burke at 23% recently, with a strong Hamilton record.
Stargazed — 20/1
Same Burke angle and another price that makes you look twice.
Porth Eilian — 6/1
Ed Bethell 32% recently and 32% at Hamilton.
Rogue Citation — 5/1
Another representative of a Bethell yard in terrific form.
Zennor Storm — 11/2
Backed by the remarkably solid Haggas statistical profile.
None goes into the betting slip simply because of this page.
They go into the notebook.
That's different.
The Statistic Hidden Inside the Statistic
There's one final thing I'd watch closely.
A trainer winning at 25% isn't necessarily "in form".
Suppose that trainer normally operates at 27%.
He's actually performing slightly below expectation.
Meanwhile another trainer might currently be winning at 18% having averaged only 9% over the previous year.
Who's hotter?
Probably the second one.
That's why the relationship between 14-day form and one-year form can be more informative than the raw 14-day percentage.
Ed Bethell:
32% recently versus 17% annually.
That's interesting.
John Butler:
24% versus 17%.
Interesting.
Willie Mullins:
40% versus 20%.
Very interesting.
We're no longer simply asking:
Who's winning?
We're asking:
Who's winning considerably more often than usual?
Now we're getting somewhere.
The Stable Door Doesn't Pick Winners
Trainer form is one piece of the puzzle.
A horse can come from the hottest stable in Britain or Ireland and still be badly handicapped, wrong at the trip, compromised by the pace or simply not good enough.
But racing yards are living organisms.
When they're healthy, horses eat well, work well and frequently run well.
When something isn't right, the form book can start turning red remarkably quickly.
Trainer Stat Attack Extra gives us an early look at that temperature.
Just don't confuse the thermometer with the diagnosis.
For me, today's most interesting names aren't necessarily the horses trained by the highest-percentage trainers.
They're the ones where stable form and price collide.
Porth Eilian. Columbus. Thankfully. Stargazed. Rogue Citation. Zennor Storm.
They haven't earned a bet.
They've earned an investigation.
And in this game, that's often where the good bets begin.
Because the stable door may be talking.
The trick is knowing which numbers are worth listening to.
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