The Lowther has the look of one of those juvenile races where the market is trying to decide whether to trust proven Group form or fall in love with the latest shiny object.
That shiny object is Star Of State, supplemented for £20,000 after demolishing a Leopardstown maiden, and she may well be very good. But this is York, nineteen were declared, the ground has eased to good to soft, rain is around, and this is a proper Group 2 rather than a private gallop. She is about to find out very quickly what level she belongs at.
My starting point is Libertango, because she has already answered questions the favourite has yet to face.
She won the Albany at Royal Ascot despite meeting trouble, and that matters. Juvenile races at this level are rarely about who can run fastest in a straight line under perfect circumstances. They are about who can cope when the race gets messy. Libertango was denied a clean run, had to switch, then still found the acceleration to get there. That is a serious piece of evidence.
She then went to Newmarket for the Duchess Of Cambridge and was turned over at short odds by Senorita Bonita. On the face of it, that took a little shine off her. I am not sure it should have.
The pace was steadier than ideal, Libertango travelled strongly, got to the front and was picked off late. She did not collapse. She was beaten three-quarters of a length, and the race has subsequently produced useful collateral form. She remains the filly in here with the strongest combination of class, experience and tactical adaptability.
That makes her the horse they all have to beat.
But the market has found Star Of State.
Her debut at Fairyhouse was a classic education run. She was green, briefly outpaced, then flew home to finish second behind Livenka. Eight days later, she looked like a different animal at Leopardstown. She made all, quickened away and won by nine lengths on the bridle.
Visually, it was electric.
The difficulty is knowing what it was worth.
The second and third were beaten out of sight, but they were not established Pattern fillies. Star Of State therefore arrives with enormous potential but relatively little hard evidence. The Racing Post figure of 102 and Topspeed 93 are very respectable, but they do not put her clear of these on achievement.
What they do tell us is that she has a serious engine.
The key question is whether she can produce that same effortless acceleration when Libertango, Wild Blossom, Shimmering Sun and Crownbreaker are breathing down her neck rather than ordinary maidens.
At around 9/4, the market is asking us to assume that she can.
That is where I hesitate.
Then we come to Wild Blossom, arguably the most dangerous horse in the race.
Her Goodwood performance was superb. She travelled strongly, moved through the race like a proper sprinter and produced a Topspeed figure of 114 and an RPR of 120. Those are the standout numbers on the card.
She also won her debut by ten lengths.
So why isn't she favourite?
Six furlongs.
Every run so far has been at five, and while she shaped at Goodwood as though another furlong should not inconvenience her, there is a substantial difference between seeing out six furlongs on paper and seeing out York's six furlongs on easing ground in a Group 2.
Her Royal Ascot run is interesting too. She was prominent, went forward and weakened. It may simply have been a bad day or a tactical issue, and she bounced back emphatically afterwards. But it gives me just enough doubt to resist treating that 120 RPR as gospel.
If she stays, she could simply be the fastest horse in the race.
If she over-races or hits the front too early, the final furlong could become uncomfortable.
That is where Shimmering Sun enters the picture.
She may be the most interesting horse in the entire race at the prices.
Her Queen Mary effort was better than seventh place suggests. She was bumped early, found herself further back than ideal and still finished strongly. The race has worked out extremely well.
She then went to Naas and again finished strongly behind Big Negotiator, having been forced to wait for room and switch before delivering her challenge.
Twice now she has looked like a filly screaming for six furlongs.
This is her chance to prove it.
She does not have Libertango's Pattern victory or Wild Blossom's giant figure, but she has exactly the sort of profile I like in a juvenile Group race: solid form, adversity already overcome, and an obvious reason why she might improve.
The extra furlong is not some theoretical pedigree guess. Her actual racing style suggests it.
At around 11/1, she looks a very different proposition from the three at the head of the market.
Then there is Crownbreaker, who I think is being underestimated.
Her fifth in the Queen Mary was a huge run at 100/1. She then went to Deauville and won a Listed race on good to soft, which is suddenly highly relevant given today's ground.
Forget Goodwood.
She stumbled halfway and never recovered.
Draw a line through it.
Before that she had demonstrated speed, finishing ability and genuine improvement. She is also bred to appreciate six furlongs, being a half-sister to Mill Stream and Asymmetric.
At 16/1, she is dangerous.
Miss Kodi is another one I would not dismiss lightly.
Her Chepstow debut was striking. She travelled, went to the front and pulled seven lengths clear. That came on good to soft, which is a useful piece of evidence today.
She then stepped straight into Group company at Ascot, raced too keenly, flashed her tail under pressure and still finished fifth behind Moonrise.
There is clearly ability there.
The question is temperament and professionalism.
If she settles better under Rossa Ryan, she could improve significantly on the bare form. At double figures, she belongs on the shortlist rather than in the discard pile.
Ruby Moon is another sleeper.
She won comfortably on debut, then was pitched straight into a Group 2 at Newmarket. She got outpaced, looked in trouble, then came home strongly to finish fourth.
That tells us something.
She may not possess the immediate acceleration of Libertango or Wild Blossom, but a strong gallop over six furlongs on easier ground could drag this into her territory.
At 14/1, she is not impossible.
Big Negotiator is tougher and more exposed than most of these, but that is not necessarily a negative in a juvenile race.
She has six starts behind her, has won at York and arrives off a Listed success at Naas in first-time visor. She made virtually all there and beat Shimmering Sun.
The suspicion is that Shimmering Sun might reverse that form over six, but Big Negotiator is straightforward, experienced and could again be dangerous if allowed to dictate.
She is one of those horses you can underestimate because she lacks glamour.
York often has little sympathy for glamour.
Alta Regina is more complicated.
Her Queen Mary sixth was very good and came with a strong speed figure. She then disappointed behind Moonrise in the Princess Margaret after starting awkwardly.
She is clearly better than that latest run.
The problem is price and confidence. Once a juvenile throws in a performance that flat, you have to decide whether it was simply circumstances or whether the early promise has levelled off.
At a big price, I can forgive it.
I would not be shocked by a rebound.
In The Black is the mystery horse.
Her Carlisle debut victory produced an RPR of just 68, which puts her miles behind these on bare form.
But the circumstances matter.
She was weak in the betting, green, not obviously wound tight, yet still picked up strongly and won cosily. PJ McDonald was extremely positive afterwards and Geoff Oldroyd is not a trainer who throws juvenile fillies into Group 2 races on a whim.
She has also had a wind operation since.
She could finish last.
She could also be considerably better than her one published figure.
At 20/1-plus, that uncertainty is at least priced in.
The rest have much more to find.
Angels Passing showed promise here on debut and then won easily at Hamilton, but this is a huge leap.
Jolivette has already had opportunities in Group company and needs to settle better.
Bint Archange has talent but has been inconsistent and now has to prove six furlongs suits.
Love A Giggle has York form but has not progressed as hoped.
Crystal Queen, Sexy Chick and Desert Sands need transformations rather than improvement.
The pace is crucial.
Big Negotiator can go forward. Star Of State made all at Leopardstown. Angels Passing made all at Hamilton. Wild Blossom has raced prominently. There should be enough early speed to stop this becoming tactical.
That is good news for Libertango.
It is also good news for Shimmering Sun, Ruby Moon and Crownbreaker.
The easing ground adds another layer. Six furlongs at York on good to soft is not just a speed test. It asks a juvenile to relax, travel and keep finding after the pace begins to bite.
That is why I am slightly cooler on Wild Blossom than her Goodwood figure might suggest.
It is also why I like Shimmering Sun more than I did earlier in the week.
Star Of State may simply be exceptional. If she reproduces the Leopardstown visual impression against this field, we could be looking at a very serious filly.
But at 9/4, you are being asked to pay for that possibility.
Libertango has already done it.
She has won a Group race in a big field, handled trouble and proved she can deliver at six furlongs against elite juveniles. She is the most complete horse in the race at this stage of their careers.
That makes her my idea of the winner.
The betting interest, though, is elsewhere.
Shimmering Sun at around 11/1 is the one whose price does not quite match her profile. Everything she has done over five furlongs suggests today's six may unlock another chunk of improvement, and her Queen Mary form gives her a solid foundation.
Crownbreaker at around 16/1 is the other one I would not want running against me. Good to soft holds no fears, Goodwood is easily forgiven and her Ascot run gives her a proper form foothold.
So the race comes down to this.
Most likely winner: LIBERTANGO
She has the form, the racecraft and the right run style.
Biggest danger: STAR OF STATE
Could be anything, but the market already knows it.
Raw talent threat: WILD BLOSSOM
Outstanding figures, but six furlongs on easing ground is the question.
Best value: SHIMMERING SUN
Progressive profile, strong Queen Mary run, finishing well over five and crying out for this trip.
Dark horse: CROWNBREAKER
Forgive Goodwood and suddenly 16/1 looks generous.
My finishing order would be:
1. LIBERTANGO
2. SHIMMERING SUN
3. STAR OF STATE
4. CROWNBREAKER
5. WILD BLOSSOM
If Star Of State wins impressively, we may have seen a future Group 1 filly announce herself.
If Libertango wins, she will simply have confirmed what the formbook has been telling us all along.
And if Shimmering Sun runs past the lot of them late, nobody should be able to say the clues weren't there.
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