On paper this is a small-field Class 3 handicap, but it is considerably more interesting than the numbers suggest. Four of the six runners retain varying degrees of untapped potential, while the remaining pair are established handicappers who know exactly where they stand. The race should be tactically run rather than an end-to-end gallop, and that could prove just as important as outright ability.
With only six runners, there is little room for hard-luck stories. Positioning around Ripon's tight bends is often decisive, particularly over a mile where the race can become a sprint from the three-furlong marker. Any horse forced to give away ground around the home turn usually pays the price.
Pace and race shape
Beyond The Bar is the obvious pace influence.
He has been ridden aggressively on his last few starts and made virtually all to win at Catterick. Connections have openly acknowledged that positive tactics suit him, and there appears little reason to change those tactics here.
Command The Stars has led before but has generally been happiest sitting just behind the pace, while Daydreama can race prominently without needing to force matters.
Masked Warrior, Noelan Star and Enchant are all comfortable being settled before producing one run.
That creates the possibility of an evenly-run rather than strongly-run race.
A steadily-run mile at Ripon places extra emphasis on tactical speed. Horses relying on a searching gallop to expose stamina weaknesses may find themselves with too much to do.
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Runner-by-runner analysis
1. Command The Stars (OR 92)
Private Rating: 93
Command The Stars is the most exposed horse in the race but also brings the strongest established form.
His juvenile campaign culminated in a Listed success before respectable efforts in valuable handicaps and Pattern company. This season has been more difficult.
He was well beaten in two Listed races and never landed a blow in the Chester handicap before again finding Listed class beyond him at Goodwood.
The positive is that he now returns to a much more realistic assignment.
His York second in the Ebor meeting nursery remains solid handicap form and his Racing Post ratings have remained remarkably consistent throughout his career.
The concern is whether there is any improvement left.
A mark of 92 looks close to his ceiling rather than a platform for further progress.
Giving weight away around Ripon against progressive rivals is no easy task.
Strengths
- Highest established level.
- Tough and genuine.
- Proven in better races.
Concerns
- May already be fully exposed.
- Carries top weight.
- Little evidence of improvement at three.
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2. Noelan Star (OR 90)
Private Rating: 94
Possibly the most difficult horse to assess.
His first three starts could hardly have gone much better.
He destroyed a Newcastle novice before confirming that impression with another comfortable success under a penalty.
The Doncaster defeat came with a stone penalty and was still a highly creditable effort.
Connections then rolled the dice in the Britannia at Royal Ascot.
Nothing went right.
Drawn high in a race where the pace developed elsewhere, he never became competitive and his finishing position can probably be ignored.
This is effectively his first opportunity to show whether he truly belongs in Pattern-class handicaps.
Daniel Tudhope is an eye-catching booking and the return to a small field could suit perfectly.
The question is simply whether the Ascot run leaves any lasting doubts about his effectiveness on turf.
It is still too early to conclude that.
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3. Masked Warrior (OR 89)
Private Rating: 95
For me, the most likely winner.
Unlike several rivals, his profile is still moving upwards.
He looked awkward in novice company before first-time cheekpieces transformed him at Kempton.
His handicap debut at Chester was particularly encouraging.
Chester's sharp bends and tactical nature often catch inexperienced horses out.
He briefly lost his position when the tempo lifted but rallied strongly inside the final furlong to finish a close third behind Jeddaal.
The bare margin of three-quarters of a length probably understates the merit of the run.
Importantly, it suggested he still has improvement to come once learning to travel more fluently.
Harry Davies knows him well.
William Haggas rarely overfaces inexperienced handicappers and this looks another carefully chosen opportunity.
If he progresses even three or four pounds from Chester, he becomes the horse they all have to beat.
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4. Daydreama (OR 83)
Private Rating: 87
A frustrating horse.
His York second in May showed exactly why connections continue to persevere at this level.
On that occasion he travelled strongly, finished well and produced a performance that would make him competitive here.
Unfortunately he has failed to reproduce it.
His last three starts suggest he is vulnerable whenever the race becomes tactical.
He tends to travel well before flattening out late.
David Allan knows Ripon better than almost anyone and stall two gives tactical options, but others arrive with stronger profiles.
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5. Enchant (OR 81)
Private Rating: 90
The most intriguing runner.
Only two career starts.
Debut winner.
Absent for almost twelve months.
Returned in a competitive Doncaster novice where she travelled kindly before understandably tiring late.
That race should bring her forward considerably.
Her pedigree screams improvement over this trip.
By Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare, there is every reason to believe a mile is exactly what she wants.
Karl Burke has an excellent record developing lightly-raced three-year-olds through handicaps and an opening mark of 81 could underestimate her ability.
Unlike several rivals, she has significant scope.
If she improves seven or eight pounds from her comeback she becomes a major player.
She is the value alternative to the favourite.
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6. Beyond The Bar (OR 75)
Private Rating: 84
The likely leader.
His Catterick success was well deserved and the manner in which he dug deep after setting the pace deserves credit.
The difficulty is assessing the strength of that race.
It was a Class 5 handicap and today's opposition is considerably stronger.
Ripon can reward front-runners, particularly if they obtain an uncontested lead.
He may therefore run better than his handicap mark suggests.
Even so, another career best appears necessary.
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Tactical outlook
Everything points towards Beyond The Bar dictating.
Command The Stars is likely to sit nearby.
Masked Warrior and Noelan Star should enjoy ideal stalking positions.
Enchant may be held up towards the rear before attempting to produce one late challenge.
If Beyond The Bar is allowed cheap fractions, this becomes much more tactical than form students might expect.
That would slightly reduce the advantage held by the stronger finishers.
If somebody decides to force the pace from halfway, the race should instead develop into a straightforward test of class, which would suit Masked Warrior and Noelan Star.
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Ratings
Horse| Private Rating
Masked Warrior| 95
Noelan Star| 94
Command The Stars| 93
Enchant| 90
Daydreama| 87
Beyond The Bar| 84
Projected race rating: 93
This is a solid rather than exceptional Class 3.
The quality comes from progressive profiles rather than proven high-class handicap form.
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Verdict
Masked Warrior has the strongest combination of current form, potential and stable placement. His Chester handicap debut suggested there is still untapped ability, and William Haggas excels with lightly raced three-year-olds in races of this nature. He is the percentage call.
Noelan Star is respected, particularly if forgiving the Britannia effort, but his turf credentials are not yet as convincing as his all-weather form.
Command The Stars sets the established standard but looks vulnerable under top weight against less exposed rivals.
The one who could upset the market is Enchant. She is almost impossible to quantify after just two starts, yet her pedigree, comeback run and opening handicap mark all hint that she has considerably more ability than she has shown so far. At around 5/1 she appeals as the value in the race.
Predicted finishing order
1. Masked Warrior
2. Enchant
3. Noelan Star
4. Command The Stars
5. Beyond The Bar
6. Daydreama
Betting recommendation
Masked Warrior is the most likely winner, but Enchant is the more interesting betting proposition. If she progresses as expected from her seasonal return, she has the potential to outperform her handicap mark by a meaningful margin and could develop into the best horse in this field by the end of the season.
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