The opening race at Newton Abbot is a competitive eight-runner mares' maiden hurdle over 2m1f on good ground, and while several arrive with similar profiles, the race may offer an opportunity to side with value rather than the obvious market leaders.
The market is headed by Likewhatyousee, who sets the standard on hurdle form after finishing a close second over this course and distance three weeks ago. Previously successful on the Flat in Ireland, she shaped well on her hurdling debut and is the one they all have to beat if reproducing that effort.
However, the TimeWise ratings suggest the market may have underestimated For Her Glory. Olly Murphy's filly tops the ratings with a figure of 303.6 and arrives after winning a Southwell bumper before finding life tougher under a penalty on her next start. Her bumper form compares favourably with most of these rivals and the switch to hurdles could unlock further improvement. The addition of a hood may also help her settle better in the early stages.
Getmyfriend is another with solid credentials. Dan Skelton's mare won a Southwell bumper impressively before disappointing under a penalty at Plumpton. Given the stable's excellent current form and strong jockey booking, she looks capable of bouncing back and rates a major contender.
Elated has the benefit of hurdling experience and has finished third in all four hurdle starts. She sets a reliable standard but has had several opportunities and may again find one or two with greater upside. Consistency should see her involved in the finish, but she could prove vulnerable to less exposed rivals.
For those seeking a bigger-priced option, Steal A Glance is the most interesting outsider. Her hurdle debut behind Likewhatyousee was disappointing, but she possesses enough bumper form to suggest she can improve and she sits comfortably ahead of the other outsiders on the ratings.
One horse attracting attention from some tipping quarters is Lundy View. She makes her hurdling debut after showing only modest bumper form at this track. At huge odds she is not completely impossible, but she requires a sizeable step forward and is difficult to support on the evidence available.
TimeWise Top Four
1. For Her Glory – 303.6
2. Likewhatyousee – 293.4
3. Getmyfriend – 292.3
4. Elated – 282.9
Verdict
This looks a race where the market may have become slightly fixated on Likewhatyousee's recent course form. The ratings make For Her Glory the horse to beat and her current odds offer a more attractive risk-reward profile.
Selection: For Her Glory
Main Danger: Likewhatyousee
Value Alternative: Getmyfriend
Best Outsider: Steal A Glance
No comments:
Post a Comment