A competitive Class 5 handicap for three-year-olds takes centre stage at Nottingham at 16:05, with a fascinating mix of progressive handicappers, lightly raced improvers and exposed runners searching for a return to form.
At the head of the market sits Empirical, but while the Ed Walker-trained gelding has obvious potential after an encouraging handicap debut over course and distance, there are reasons to believe the race may not be as straightforward as the betting suggests.
The strongest recent form belongs to Thornaby Annie, who arrives on the back of a deserved victory at Wetherby. Adrian Nicholls' filly had been knocking on the door with successive runner-up efforts before stepping up to a mile and getting off the mark in convincing fashion. The move to this trip appears to have unlocked further improvement and, with conditions again in her favour, she looks capable of defying a 4lb rise. Her profile is that of a horse still progressing, and she sets a solid standard for the field.
Chief among the dangers is Mereside Princess, whose recent form figures make compelling reading. David and Nicola Barron's filly has won two of her last three starts and was narrowly denied a hat-trick when chasing home a well-treated rival at Musselburgh last time. She races here before a higher handicap mark takes effect and arrives in arguably the best current form in the race. If reproducing her latest effort, she should be heavily involved in the finish once again.
The market leader Empirical remains a horse of significant interest. A son of Kingman, he shaped with promise when third over this course and distance on his handicap debut after being slowly away. That was his first run after being gelded, and natural improvement is expected. However, with only one handicap run to his name and odds hovering around even money, punters are being asked to pay for anticipated progress rather than proven achievement.
For those seeking value away from the principals, Mayflower Billy deserves consideration. His second-place finish at Doncaster on handicap debut was a notable effort, and his subsequent run at Newbury may have been better than the bare result suggests given the race dynamics. He remains relatively unexposed and could easily outrun market expectations.
Perhaps the most intriguing outsider is Albertini Star. Making her handicap debut after a lengthy absence, the Alan King-trained filly steps up in trip and sports a first-time hood. Her juvenile form hinted at ability, and with just three career starts she possesses considerably more untapped potential than many of her rivals. If ready after 218 days off the track, she could emerge as the surprise package.
Elsewhere, Storm Esme, Kameko Fever and Sahara Magic all have questions to answer. Each has shown ability at earlier stages of their careers, but recent form leaves them with ground to make up against the race's leading contenders.
From a ratings perspective, Thornaby Annie narrowly earns top billing thanks to her combination of current form, proven suitability to conditions and scope for further progress. Mereside Princess rates a major threat, while Empirical remains the wildcard whose potential must now be converted into performance.
Predicted Finishing Order
1. Thornaby Annie
2. Mereside Princess
3. Empirical
4. Mayflower Billy
5. Albertini Star
Verdict
Thornaby Annie's recent victory suggested there is more to come over a mile, and she can continue her progression by following up at Nottingham. Mereside Princess rates the chief danger after a string of excellent efforts, while Empirical may prove vulnerable at short odds despite his obvious upside.I
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