17:48 Roscommon Preview: Astelia Can Use Lone-Speed Edge in Open Maiden Hurdle🏇⤵️👇

The 17:48 at Roscommon, the Shanagher Hearing Maiden Hurdle, looks a deeper race than a standard summer maiden, with several exposed but capable types taking on a handful of less-exposed runners. The market is headed by familiar names, but the race shape could be the deciding factor.

Astelia makes the most appeal. She has finished runner-up in six of her eight hurdle starts, so there is an obvious concern that she has become hard to win with. However, her recent figures are strong, she handles good ground, stays this two-mile trip well, and the pace map gives her a major tactical advantage. She is the only clear front-runner in the field, which could allow Sam Ewing to dictate steady fractions and kick before the closers get organised.

Luker’s Tipple is the obvious danger on ratings. He has the highest published hurdle rating in the field and has been admirably consistent in defeat. His third at Limerick behind Game Point was another solid run, but with 13 hurdle starts already, he is more reliable than progressive. At short odds, he looks fairly priced rather than a value play.

Game Point is the most interesting improver. He is only four, has shaped well in two hurdle starts, and finished ahead of Luker’s Tipple at Limerick. He also has a strong late-finishing profile, so he is the one most likely to capitalise if Astelia overdoes things in front. Jack Kennedy is a further positive.

Firebrand is another solid contender after a good comeback second at Punchestown, but the 8lb penalty makes his task tougher. He should run his race, yet he may need one or two of the main players to underperform.

Cocofred is the dark horse among the raced runners. His Tramore fourth on good ground was a clear step forward, and further improvement would not surprise from the Henry de Bromhead yard.

The debutantes, particularly Pretty Wild, Lengaruka and Poetic Parable, are worth watching in the market, but this looks a race where the established hurdle form sets a fair standard.

Overall, Astelia gets the vote. She is not bombproof, but the combination of solid ability, suitable conditions and a likely uncontested lead makes her the most appealing betting option. Game Point rates the main danger and could be the each-way alternative.

Selection: Astelia

Main danger: Game Point

Best value: Astelia

Each-way alternative: Game Point