This looks an ordinary but competitive three-year-old Class 6 handicap in which there is little between several of the principals. The race should be run at a genuine pace, with The Tunguska Event almost certain to go forward from the outset, while Maximum Velocity is another who is happiest racing prominently. That pace scenario could set the race up for those arriving late.
The Tunguska Event – The benchmark
The Tunguska Event sets the standard on recent form. His last four handicap runs have all been solid efforts, including a Catterick success and a good third at Doncaster off a similar mark. He is a genuine front-runner who gives his running almost every time.
The slight concern is Leicester's uphill finish. If allowed an uncontested lead he could prove difficult to reel in, but sustained early pressure would leave him vulnerable in the final furlong.
Private rating: 64
Maximum Velocity – Consistent and reliable
Maximum Velocity has progressed steadily through the season and arrives after a respectable third at Doncaster from today's mark. He has already won from a lower rating and generally races handily without needing to force the pace.
He looks one of the safest propositions in the race and is likely to obtain a good tactical position behind the leader.
Private rating: 63
Pimentel – The handicap angle
Pimentel may be the best handicapped runner in the field. Her recent second at Chepstow and third at Brighton suggest she is performing a few pounds above her official mark of 57.
She is likely to be ridden patiently and, if the leaders go too hard, she is the runner most likely to finish strongly.
Private rating: 60
Portacloy – Capable if returning to juvenile form
Portacloy won a 6f maiden as a two-year-old but has yet to reproduce that form in handicaps. Her mark has fallen to 65 and, after a break, this is the sort of race where a revival would not surprise.
The ability is there, but recent handicap evidence is less convincing than that of the principals.
Private rating: 60 (up to 66 if returning to best)
Apex Star – Honest maiden
Apex Star remains a maiden but has produced several respectable handicap efforts. His Bath second reads well enough for this grade and he is another likely to be positioned just behind the pace.
He is consistent without looking obviously ahead of the handicapper.
Private rating: 59
Crafty Blue – Hard to assess
Crafty Blue began handicapping from a lofty mark after winning a novice race but has disappointed badly in three starts over a mile. Dropping back to 6f and into weaker company offers some hope, although she has plenty to prove.
She is one of the more difficult runners to price accurately and could easily outrun or underperform market expectations.
Private rating: 58 (higher if the return to sprinting sparks improvement)
Goldenstateofmind – Needs a revival
Goldenstateofmind shaped with promise as a juvenile but has offered very little in three starts this season. His mark has eased to 63, yet he still needs to show much more than he has in recent handicaps.
He cannot be dismissed entirely on potential, but recent evidence makes him difficult to support.
Private rating: 56
Landslide – The unknown quantity
The sole handicap debutant has shown only modest form in novice company but receives the benefit of the doubt as an unexposed runner. His opening mark of 59 looks fair on what he has achieved, although he will need significant improvement to take a hand.
He has the greatest scope in the field but also the least substance.
Private rating: 54 (with potential to improve into the high 50s)
Predicted pace
- Likely leader: The Tunguska Event
- Tracking the pace: Maximum Velocity, possibly Apex Star
- Held up: Pimentel, Goldenstateofmind
- Question marks: Crafty Blue, Portacloy and Landslide may adopt more flexible tactics.
A truly run race would favour the closers, while a steady early gallop would increase The Tunguska Event's chance of making all.
Private ratings
Rank| Horse| Rating
1| The Tunguska Event| 64
2| Maximum Velocity| 63
3| Pimentel| 60
4| Portacloy| 60
5| Apex Star| 59
6| Crafty Blue| 58
7| Goldenstateofmind| 56
8| Landslide| 54
Verdict
This does not look a race containing an obviously well-handicapped winner, so reliability is an important factor. The Tunguska Event and Maximum Velocity have the strongest recent form and set the standard on private ratings.
The most interesting alternative is Pimentel, whose recent performances suggest she is better than her official mark and whose hold-up style could be well suited if the leaders ensure an honest pace.
For those looking beyond the principals, Portacloy is the value outsider. Her handicap form is disappointing, but she possesses enough juvenile ability to make her dangerous if returning anywhere near her best after a break.
Predicted finishing order:
1. The Tunguska Event
2. Maximum Velocity
3. Pimentel
4. Portacloy
Leicester 8.50 Review – Kube – Leicester's Premier Exhibition Venue Handicap (Class 6, 6f)
The race unfolded very much as anticipated, with The Tunguska Event setting a strong early gallop and Maximum Velocity tracking the leader throughout. The pace was genuine from the outset and, on Leicester's stiff finish, those who had been ridden more patiently were always likely to become involved late.
The Tunguska Event raced keenly in front and still held the advantage approaching the final furlong, but the early exertions eventually took their toll. Maximum Velocity moved through smoothly to lead over a furlong from home and looked the most likely winner, only to be caught close to the line by a well-timed late challenge from Crafty Blue.
Crafty Blue had been the difficult horse to assess beforehand. Her three handicap runs over a mile had been uniformly disappointing, but the return to 6f transformed her. Held up towards the rear, she travelled comfortably before producing the strongest finishing effort in the race, running down Maximum Velocity in the closing strides. Rather than representing a dramatic leap forward, the performance looked more like a return to the level she had shown when winning her juvenile novice at Southwell.
Maximum Velocity lost nothing in defeat. This was another honest effort from a horse who has become one of the most consistent performers at this level. He travelled strongly, took over at the right time and was only denied by a rival with a sharper turn of foot in the final 100 yards. He again ran right up to his established rating.
Apex Star filled third, producing another solid but exposed Class 6 performance. He travelled well enough behind the pace and kept on without ever looking capable of matching the first two. It was a fair reflection of his current ability.
The Tunguska Event ultimately faded into fourth after forcing the pace throughout. There was no disgrace in the effort, but it again highlighted that his best performances come when he can dominate without significant pressure. Racing keenly on a stiff track left him vulnerable late.
Portacloy stayed on at one pace in fifth. There were mild signs of encouragement after a break, but not enough to suggest a full return to her juvenile form.
The eye-catching run came from Landslide. Slowly into stride and detached early, he looked out of contention some way from home before staying on strongly inside the final furlong to finish nearest at the line. Although only sixth, this was a marked step forward on his handicap debut and suggested there is considerably more to come once he gains experience. He was the horse to take from the race.
By contrast, Pimentel disappointed. The anticipated strong pace should have suited her hold-up style perfectly, but she failed to quicken when the race developed and weakened in the closing stages. It was comfortably below her previous two efforts.
Goldenstateofmind again failed to build on his juvenile promise, weakening rapidly before being eased and finishing well beaten. It is becoming increasingly difficult to make a positive case for him until he shows some evidence of a revival.
Private performance ratings
Horse| Rating
Crafty Blue| 64
Maximum Velocity| 63
Apex Star| 60
The Tunguska Event| 61
Portacloy| 59
Landslide| 59 (upgrade)
Pimentel| 56
Goldenstateofmind| 40
Race rating: 62
This was an honest, ordinary Class 6 handicap rather than an above-average renewal. The pace was genuine, the result looked reliable, and the winner produced a performance just above the normal Class 6 standard without suggesting she is about to climb far beyond this level.
Horse to follow: Landslide. His finishing effort after a poor start and being outpaced early suggested this initial handicap mark may underestimate his ability, particularly over a slightly longer trip or another strongly run sprint.
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