The 2.15 at Lingfield looks a fascinating puzzle despite being a modest Class 6 selling handicap over 1m4f. On paper, Heart Sign heads the market and tops both the RTR and TimeWise ratings, but there are enough questions surrounding the favourite to make this a more competitive race than the betting suggests.
The first thing that stands out is the likely race shape. HorseRaceBase's Comment Shaper predicts a weak pace scenario, with no recognised front-runner in the field and very little early pressure expected. Such races often develop into tactical affairs where track position becomes crucial and horses coming from well off the pace can find themselves with too much to do.
That pace setup raises concerns for Heart Sign. The three-year-old has repeatedly been slow away in recent starts and the Racing Post notes that blowing the start has cost him on his last two outings. Oisin Murphy takes the ride and the application of a first-time visor could help, but in a race lacking pace, surrendering early position may prove costly.
Mister Daydream is the obvious alternative among the principals. He sits second on both the RTR and TimeWise rankings and has dropped to a mark from which he is becoming increasingly dangerous. However, his recent form figures leave plenty to be desired and his hold-up style is not an obvious fit for a race that may turn into a sprint from the home bend.
The horse who continues to appeal from a value perspective is Cezarro. Third on both RTR and TimeWise ratings, he is available at a double-figure price despite being relatively close to the market leaders on the figures. His latest Lingfield run has already produced two subsequent winners and David Probert is a positive booking. The step up to 1m4f asks a new question, but if he settles, he looks capable of outrunning his odds.
Perhaps the most interesting runner tactically is Sapphire Dream. Drawn in stall one and forecast to race closest to the pace, he could enjoy the run of the race if the predicted weak pace materialises. Charlie Clover's excellent Lingfield and distance statistics add further encouragement. The concern is whether he truly stays the trip, but from a tactical viewpoint he has plenty in his favour.
Premier Cru has support from the strong James Fanshawe and Daniel Muscutt combination, while Lunar Power has enough staying power and distance credentials to make the frame if the race develops into a test of stamina. Both are respected but may need career-best efforts to win.
Verdict
This race looks far less straightforward than the market suggests. Heart Sign is the most likely winner on the ratings but has obvious tactical risks at a short price. Sapphire Dream could get the ideal trip from stall one if the pace unfolds as expected, while Cezarro makes plenty of appeal as the value alternative.
Selection
Cezarro
Main Danger
Heart Sign
Dark Horse
Sapphire Dream
Value Play
Cezarro (18/1)
No comments:
Post a Comment