The feature race at Limerick on Thursday is the €42,000 Grade 3 Kevin McManus Bookmaker Grimes Hurdle, and while only a small field has assembled, it looks a fascinating tactical contest.
With Timeform forecasting a very weak pace, positioning could prove more important than outright ability. In races where the tempo is steady, those racing prominently often gain a significant advantage, while horses held up in rear can find themselves with too much ground to make up when the sprint begins.
That pace scenario immediately puts the spotlight on Daddy Long Legs, the Willie Mullins-trained seven-year-old who arrives in excellent form. After returning to hurdling with an authoritative victory at Ballinrobe in May, he backed that effort up with a respectable second on the Flat at Down Royal. The versatile gelding appears to retain all of his ability and, crucially, his racing style should allow Paul Townend to secure a handy position from the outset.
Mullins has an outstanding record in this race and his runners at Limerick continue to operate at an exceptional strike rate. With conditions likely to suit perfectly, Daddy Long Legs looks the horse most likely to get first run on his rivals when the race develops.
The principal danger appears to be Bowensonfire from the Gordon Elliott yard. The six-year-old produced two notable hurdle victories earlier in the season, including a competitive Leopardstown handicap, and his overall form arguably sets the standard among the younger horses in the field. However, there is a concern that his hold-up style may leave him vulnerable if the race develops into the tactical affair many expect. If the leaders are allowed an easy time in front, Bowensonfire could find himself needing to produce an exceptional turn of foot.
Last year's winner Jesse Evans cannot be dismissed. Noel Meade's veteran has enjoyed a productive campaign over fences and arrives on the back of a decisive victory at Listowel. Although now ten years old and unlikely to improve significantly, he remains a remarkably reliable performer and has already proven his suitability for this particular contest. If the front two underperform, he looks the most likely horse to capitalise.
The remainder of the field have questions to answer. King Of Kingsfield has struggled since a chasing success last autumn and must bounce back from several disappointing efforts. Run For Oscar, a high-class staying performer at his best, returns from a lengthy absence and drops markedly in trip, while Queenofthelodge appears to have plenty to find on the ratings.
PJ Racing Power Rankings
1. Daddy Long Legs
2. Bowensonfire
3. Jesse Evans
4. King Of Kingsfield
5. Run For Oscar
6. Queenofthelodge
Best Bets
Best Bet – Daddy Long Legs (Win)
Everything points towards a big run. He has the strongest overall profile, the ideal tactical setup, the champion trainer-jockey combination, and arrives in form. In a race lacking depth, he deserves favouritism.
Value Bet – Jesse Evans (Each-Way if available)
The defending champion is likely to be overlooked in the market because of his age, but his recent form remains solid. He looks capable of hitting the frame and could easily outrun his odds.
Forecast Bet
Daddy Long Legs to beat Bowensonfire
The race appears to revolve around these two, with Daddy Long Legs holding the tactical advantage and Bowensonfire possessing the strongest finishing threat.
Predicted Finishing Order
1. Daddy Long Legs
2. Bowensonfire
3. Jesse Evans
4. King Of Kingsfield
5. Run For Oscar
6. Queenofthelodge
Selection: Daddy Long Legs
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Value Selection: Jesse Evans
Race Verdict: A small-field Grade 3 that may be decided by tactics rather than stamina, with Daddy Long Legs expected to secure the run of the race and prove difficult to pass.
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