This six-runner handicap revolves around a simple question: has the market correctly assessed the exposed horses, or is the value hidden among the handicap debutants?
Hard To Believe brings the strongest established credentials but arrives off a disappointing York run and doesn't look obviously well treated from a mark of 80.
Outflank is likely to be popular. Three solid placed efforts and first-time blinkers suggest improvement could be forthcoming, but he still has to prove he's ahead of his mark.
The most intriguing runners are Temple and Brave Hunter. Temple's pedigree screams middle-distance handicaps and his opening mark may underestimate him. Brave Hunter steps dramatically up in trip and could find significant improvement if stamina proves his strong suit.
Outback Legend is progressing steadily and already has a win over a similar trip, while Battosai could enjoy the run of the race if allowed to dictate.
Final Ranking
Outflank
Temple
Outback Legend
Brave Hunter
Hard To Believe
Battosai
Value Ranking
Temple
Battosai
Brave Hunter
Conclusion: Temple is the horse I'd want onside at the likely prices, while Outflank remains the most plausible winner. In betting terms, this looks more a value race than a confidence race.
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