Going: Good to Soft (Good in places)
Field: 15 runners (Warm Spell NR)
Pace: Strong
Draw Bias: Favors low numbers
Race Snapshot
A competitive 0-90 handicap where the pace map looks genuinely strong. Several habitual front-runners and prominent racers are drawn low to middle, which should ensure a proper gallop.
The key angle is whether the race collapses late for a stalker, or whether one of the well-drawn pace horses gets first run.
Likely Race Shape
Likely pace:
- I'm Workin On It (3) – natural front-runner
- Best Rate (13) – usually prominent
- I Still Have Faith (10) – races handily
- Ata Rangi (4) – can sit close to pace
- Storm Free (8) – usually not far away
With a strong pace forecast already highlighted by Timeform, this should suit horses able to sit just off the speed rather than those needing to make all.
Low draws are a positive, especially for runners able to secure position early.
Runner-by-Runner Notes
1. Consecrated
- Haggas runner with a lofty mark.
- Completely tailed off on seasonal return over 10.5f.
- Drops sharply in trip to 7f.
- Strong stable but profile is difficult to trust.
Memory Tag: "Well-bred, unexposed, but needs revival."
2. Nostrum
- Former Group-class horse.
- Much better when second at Sandown last time.
- Mark of 90 looks exploitable if retaining ability.
- Draw 6 ideal.
Upgrade: Significant if Sandown wasn't a one-off.
3. Brian
- Running poorly this season.
- Course winner but little recent encouragement.
Downgrade: Needs dramatic turnaround.
4. Ata Rangi
- Won well at Haydock on reappearance.
- Handles cut.
- Draw 5 and likely race position both positives.
- Looks fairly treated despite rise.
Memory Tag: "Reliable 7f handicapper, effective with ease."
5. Forty Years On
- Progressive 3yo campaign.
- Four wins from five before narrow defeat.
- Returns from 263-day break.
- Draw 13 is not ideal given low-draw bias.
Likely has more improvement but market knows it.
Upgrade: If handling conditions and ready first time.
6. Spangled Mac
- Course-and-distance winner.
- Breathing operation.
- Recent form weak.
Downgrade: Hard to make a case.
7. Morte Point
- Won two AW races late last year.
- Turf form this season poor.
- Breathing operation since latest run.
Downgrade: Needs operation to spark revival.
8. Storm Free
- Draw 1 could be gold.
- Oisin Murphy booked.
- Better than Ascot effort suggests.
- Proven on good to soft.
One of the more interesting runners at a price.
Upgrade: Well-drawn and conditions suit.
9. I'm Workin On It
- Progressive AW performer.
- Likely pace angle.
- Turf remains the question.
Could run well from draw 3 but vulnerable if pressured.
Memory Tag: "AW specialist until proven otherwise."
10. I Still Have Faith
- Timeform Horse In Focus.
- Shaped better than finishing position in both Newmarket runs.
- Running consistently off this mark.
- Strong pace should suit.
Looks one of the most solid pieces of form in the race.
Upgrade: Unlucky profile; likely to be finishing strongly.
11. Chalk Mountain
- Arrives after AW win.
- Draw 16 is a major concern.
- Needs to overcome widest stall and turf question.
Downgrade: Poor setup despite recent win.
12. Warm Spell
NR
13. Best Rate
- Pace forecast suggests he may get an uncontested lead despite the strong overall pace.
- Draw 15 hurts.
- Long absence.
Interesting tactical angle but difficult setup.
14. City Of Kings
- Off over three years.
- Ian Williams has a notable record with long-absent runners.
- Impossible to know how much ability remains.
Notebook: Watch only.
15. Obsidian Dream
- Nicely handicapped on old form.
- Stable out of form.
- Needs major improvement.
16. Tanmawwy
- Veteran.
- Well handicapped historically.
- Recent run very poor.
Hard to recommend.
Upgrade List
Strong Upgrades
- I Still Have Faith
- Nostrum
- Ata Rangi
Smaller Upgrades
- Storm Free
- Forty Years On
Downgrade List
- Brian
- Spangled Mac
- Morte Point
- Chalk Mountain (mainly draw)
- Tanmawwy
- Obsidian Dream
Memory Tags
| Horse | Tag |
|---|---|
| I Still Have Faith | Better than recent results, strong pace helps |
| Nostrum | Class dropper, signs of revival |
| Storm Free | Draw specialist angle, likes ease |
| Ata Rangi | Reliable 7f handicapper with cut |
| Forty Years On | Progressive filly, still unexposed |
| City Of Kings | Interesting if market support after long absence |
Shortlist
Most Likely Winner
I STILL HAVE FAITH
Main Dangers
- Nostrum
- Ata Rangi
- Forty Years On
- Storm Free
Value Contender
Storm Free – stall 1, suitable ground, Oisin Murphy, and likely to get a much better trip than several rivals.
Betting Verdict
The race looks competitive but not impossible.
Win: I STILL HAVE FAITH
Saver/Each-Way: STORM FREE
Alternative value play: NOSTRUM if available at double-figure odds.
The horse I would want on side from a handicapping perspective is I Still Have Faith, who has produced two eye-catching Newmarket runs and gets the race setup he wants. The market may focus heavily on Forty Years On, but returning from 263 days off and drawn 13 in a race where low stalls are favoured makes her less attractive at a short price.
Notebook Entries
I Still Have Faith – Upgrade
- Shaped better than result in consecutive Newmarket handicaps.
- Strongly-run 7f suits.
- Remains capable of winning off mid-80s mark.
Storm Free – Tracker
- Drawn 1 in a low-draw-favoured race.
- Handles ease in ground.
- Worth noting if running well from this setup.
Nostrum – Upgrade
- Formerly much higher class.
- Sandown second suggests ability remains.
- Dangerous in handicaps if building on latest effort.
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