Friendly Soul made every yard to win the Group 1 Prix Vermeille at Longchamp, setting a race-record time and earning herself a possible shot at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
The result says Friendly Soul beat Pink Panthera by three-quarters of a length, with Sunly another neck away in third.
The ratings tell a slightly different story.
I have Friendly Soul at 119, with the overall race rated 118.
But the horse who interests me most is Sunly.
After everything that went wrong for her, I have her performance at 120+.
She may well have been the best horse in the race.
Friendly Soul Makes Them Chase
Friendly Soul was tackling a mile and a half for the first time, but there was no attempt to conserve her stamina by hiding away in the field.
James Doyle went forward.
Friendly Soul made the running, dealt with the challenge of Composing and then attacked the race approaching the final two furlongs.
That matters.
This wasn't a case of a front-runner being allowed to crawl before sprinting home. Friendly Soul opened up a meaningful advantage and forced the others to come and catch her.
They couldn't.
Pink Panthera reduced the deficit inside the final furlong and Sunly was flying home behind her, but Friendly Soul had done enough.
The final margin was three-quarters of a length.
A Record Time
The clock gives the performance additional credibility.
Friendly Soul completed the 1m4f in 2m 25.46s, reported as 2.94 seconds faster than standard and a record time for the Prix Vermeille.
The supplied closing 400-metre sectional was 23.80sec, or 101.7%.
That combination suggests a properly run race rather than a falsely run Group 1 decided entirely by positioning.
But the time isn't the reason I've rated Friendly Soul 119.
Times support ratings; they shouldn't dictate them.
The more important evidence comes from the horses around her.
Friendly Soul: 119
Friendly Soul arrived officially rated 114 and produced a clear career-best on my figures.
I've rated her 119.
That's an excellent performance and fully worthy of considerable respect, particularly as this was her first attempt at 1m4f.
What I won't do is automatically give her a figure in the mid-120s simply because she won a Group 1 in a record time.
The form doesn't require it.
Pink Panthera, Sunly, Rabbit's Foot, Beautify and Botagoz provide a reasonably coherent body of evidence behind her. There is enough depth to call this strong form, but not enough to suggest Friendly Soul suddenly produced an elite 125-130 performance.
119 fits the race.
Pink Panthera Confirms Her Quality
Pink Panthera deserves plenty of credit in second.
The three-year-old was towards the rear before making progress more than two furlongs out. She had to switch for her challenge and then stayed on strongly after moving into second.
She was still reducing Friendly Soul's advantage at the finish.
I've rated her 118, a significant step forward from her pre-race official rating of 114.
Importantly, she was receiving 8lb from Friendly Soul.
That age-related weight difference needs to be incorporated when comparing the performances rather than looking only at the three-quarter-length margin.
Pink Panthera ran extremely well.
But she wasn't the most unfortunate horse behind the winner.
Sunly: The Horse to Take From the Race
Sunly's third needs upgrading.
Significantly.
She stumbled leaving the stalls, with Colin Keane briefly losing an iron, and consequently found herself towards the back.
That was only the beginning.
As the race started to develop in earnest, Sunly was badly hampered more than two furlongs from home.
It happened at precisely the wrong moment.
Instead of building smoothly into the race, she lost momentum and had to reorganise before beginning her challenge again.
She still finished strongly enough to take third close home.
The final deficit?
One length.
I've rated the bare result around 117.
After allowing for what happened during the race, however, my performance figure is 120+.
The plus is important.
I'm not going to state categorically that Sunly would have won with a clear passage. Racing doesn't allow that degree of certainty.
But I am comfortable saying she performed better than the finishing order suggests.
There is a credible argument that she produced the best performance in the race.
Botagoz Is Another to Upgrade
Sunly wasn't the only horse who encountered trouble.
Botagoz was also hampered around two furlongs out and had to come from the rear before finishing strongly.
She eventually finished sixth, beaten around 3¼ lengths.
The bare result undersells her.
I've given her 115+, and she is another whose finishing position shouldn't be taken literally.
Rabbit's Foot receives 115 after another solid performance, while Beautify gets 113 after keeping on well.
Those horses help give the race some depth.
Don't Rate the Race Through the Favourite
The big disappointment was Sparan Nua.
Sent off the 5-2 favourite and carrying an official rating of 118, she was positioned prominently but weakened inside the final furlong and finished ninth.
I've rated the performance only 110.
That doesn't mean she is now a 110-rated filly.
It means that's approximately what she achieved in this race.
This distinction is important when assessing Group races.
It would be easy to start with Sparan Nua's pre-race 118 rating and use it to argue that everything finishing ahead of her must have run to enormous figures.
That would inflate the race.
She disappointed.
The ratings need to acknowledge that rather than pretending otherwise.
The Prix Vermeille Ratings
Horse| Rating
Friendly Soul| 119
Pink Panthera| 118
Sunly| 120+
Rabbit's Foot| 115
Beautify| 113
Botagoz| 115+
Romantic Symphony| 113
Tattycoram| 112
Sparan Nua| 110
Survie| 100*
Composing| 81
Sugar Island| 77
Lapotheose| 72
*Survie's figure should be treated cautiously after she met trouble and was eased.
Race Rating: 118
My final rating for the Prix Vermeille is 118.
That makes it a strong race without pretending that every Group 1 automatically has to produce a 130-rated performance.
There is useful depth towards the front.
Friendly Soul ran to 119. Pink Panthera produced 118. Rabbit's Foot gives us a solid 115 reference, while Beautify and Botagoz fit reasonably around that level.
Most importantly, Sunly's upgraded figure of 120+ gives the race another genuinely high-class performance.
The result is therefore credible without requiring inflation.
What Does It Mean for the Arc?
Friendly Soul earned the right to be considered for the Arc.
She stayed 1m4f, handled Longchamp, made her own running and recorded a fast time. Those are all positives.
But a 119 performance still leaves her with improvement to find if the Arc develops into a genuinely top-class race.
The same applies to Pink Panthera.
Sunly is different.
Her third place disguises how well she ran, and she is the horse from this race whose bare finishing position I would be most inclined to ignore when assessing her next appearance.
Give her a clean start and an uninterrupted run through the straight and we may find out where the ceiling really is.
For now, the numbers are:
Friendly Soul: 119
Prix Vermeille: 118
Sunly: 120+
Friendly Soul won the race.
But Sunly is the horse I would mark up.
No comments:
Post a Comment