Erdenali announced himself as a genuine top-level miler with an authoritative victory in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.
The three-year-old beat Ten Bob Tony by 1¼ lengths, with another three lengths back to Gstaad in third, and did so in a track-record time of 1m 33.01s.
My private performance rating for Erdenali is 124.
That puts him firmly in high-class territory and makes this one of the stronger mile performances of the season without pushing the figure into elite 130+ territory.
Erdenali: 124
This was a substantial step forward from Erdenali's pre-race official rating of 109.
He travelled in touch with the leaders, moved into contention two furlongs out and took over inside the final furlong before running on strongly.
The key to the form is Ten Bob Tony.
He came into the race rated 121 and ran another solid race, travelling from the rear and briefly disputing the lead before being outpointed by the winner.
I have Ten Bob Tony running to 121, which gives the result a reliable anchor.
Erdenali beat him decisively enough to merit 124.
The Weight Difference Matters
Erdenali was receiving weight as a three-year-old.
He carried 8st 13lb, while Ten Bob Tony carried 9st 4lb.
That 5lb difference prevents the 1¼-length margin from being interpreted too aggressively.
This is why I would not jump straight to a 128 or 130 figure despite the visual impression and record time.
The winner was clearly superior on the day, but the conditions already favoured him at the weights.
A 124 rating recognises the quality of the performance without losing discipline.
The Clock Supports the Form
The time is a major positive.
Erdenali stopped the clock at 1m 33.01s, reported as a Longchamp track record.
The supplied closing sectional is also interesting.
The race's closing two furlongs were run in 23.5sec, while Erdenali covered his own final two furlongs in 22.2sec.
That is strong evidence that he was not simply hanging on after sitting behind an overly aggressive pace.
He finished his race properly.
Time alone should never determine the rating, but in this case it reinforces what the form already suggests.
Ten Bob Tony Gives the Form Substance
Ten Bob Tony deserves plenty of credit.
He was positioned at the rear before making progress on the outside and briefly looked as though he might take control.
He kept on well after Erdenali passed him and still finished three lengths clear of Gstaad.
That is important.
If the runner-up had collapsed after challenging, the winner's margin would be less trustworthy.
Instead, Ten Bob Tony sustained his effort and ran very close to his established level.
My figure for him is 121.
That makes him the most useful horse in the race for assessing Erdenali.
Gstaad Was Below His Best
Gstaad finished third but did not reproduce anything like his pre-race rating of 125.
He raced prominently, was outpaced two furlongs out and only regained third late.
The post-race comments suggested he may have needed the run after suffering a deep cut following the Sussex Stakes.
That may explain the below-par effort, but it does not change what he achieved here.
I have him at 114.
The mistake would be to use his 125 OR as an anchor and inflate the first two accordingly.
He simply did not run to that level.
Opera Ballo Paid for Racing Keenly
Opera Ballo also underperformed.
He took a strong hold, disputed the lead and then went on before weakening late.
That race shape was never likely to help him.
His pre-race OR of 123 is irrelevant to the figure he actually achieved on the day.
I have him at 110.
Again, that is a performance rating, not a judgement that his true ability has suddenly fallen to 110.
The Ratings
Horse| Rating
Erdenali| 124
Ten Bob Tony| 121
Gstaad| 114
Opera Ballo| 110
Nighttime| 108
Dreamliner| 101
Dorset| 92
The important feature is the separation at the top.
Erdenali and Ten Bob Tony pulled well clear of the rest, and both have figures that make sense relative to their established form.
That gives the race a solid backbone.
Race Rating: 122
I have the Prix du Moulin itself at 122.
That is slightly below Erdenali's individual figure because the race loses depth after the first two.
The first pair produced strong Group 1 form.
The horses behind them did not.
That distinction matters.
A race does not become a 125-plus event simply because the winner runs to that level.
How Good Is Erdenali?
The evidence says he is a proper high-class miler.
A 124 performance puts him comfortably above ordinary Group 2 level and within reach of the top end of the division.
The track-record time is encouraging.
The strong finish is encouraging.
And the fact he beat a reliable 121-rated older horse gives the form credibility.
What we do not yet have is proof that he belongs among the elite 130-plus milers.
That may come later.
For now, the right figures are:
Erdenali: 124
Ten Bob Tony: 121
Prix du Moulin: 122
This was a strong Group 1 mile with a convincing winner.
And Erdenali now looks very much like the real thing.
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