7f 50y | Class 4 | 2yo fillies | Soft | 9 runners
Sometimes the most interesting races are those where the market, the form book and the ratings don't quite agree.
The 13:20 at Ayr is one of them.
Diplomata is the clear favourite after overcoming significant trouble to beat One Shot Kodi at Haydock. She was repeatedly short of room before producing a strong finish, so the bare one-length winning margin almost certainly understates her superiority. She has gone up 10 lb, while One Shot Kodi meets her on 6 lb better terms. Timeform nevertheless expects Diplomata to confirm the form.
She may well do so.
But at around 11/8, we're being asked a different question: not can Diplomata win?, but does her chance justify that price?
My answer is no.
The ratings point somewhere else
The horse who interests me most is Missouri Waltz.
The HRB Daily Speed Tool ranks her first with a rating of 74.37, ahead of Global Success on 73.28. Her peak HRB speed figure of 76.84 is also strong in the context of this field.
Then we ran the race through HRB's TimeWise Flat ratings.
Again, Missouri Waltz came out first.
Her TimeWise total of 340.6 puts her ahead of:
Necromancer 320.2
Diplomata 310.0
Motown Filly 296.2
Bai Tong 261.4
That agreement matters.
We're not relying on one eye-catching number. Two different rating approaches independently identify the same filly.
There is further support within the TimeWise components. Missouri Waltz has the highest Horse rating (177.3), the highest Speed component (72.7) and, most interestingly, the strongest Today figure (35.5).
For a horse available at a much bigger price than the favourite, that's difficult to ignore.
The form case
Missouri Waltz has raced only twice.
She made a winning debut over seven furlongs at Catterick before stepping up to a mile at Newmarket and finishing second.
That latest defeat doesn't worry me greatly.
Timeform's interpretation is particularly interesting: they felt the longer distance was unsuitable given how she shaped and believe she retains potential back at around seven furlongs. Today's 7f 50y therefore looks much more suitable.
She has to carry top weight from an opening mark of 82, so this is no gift from the handicapper. Racing Post's current card similarly identifies the handicap mark as a question she needs to answer.
But that's where price enters the equation.
At a short price I'd want much more certainty.
At the bigger prices available this morning, I'm prepared to pay to find out.
What about Necromancer?
She's probably the most fascinating runner in the race.
Her first two starts came on much quicker ground before she improved dramatically to win over an extended seven furlongs at Beverley on heavy ground.
Now she gets soft ground again.
TimeWise likes that performance enormously: her latest-race figure of 88.9 is the highest LR figure in the field, and she ranks second overall.
But the HRB Daily Speed Tool tells a very different story.
Necromancer ranks last of nine on its overall rating, with a career-best figure of only 63.44.
That creates an important handicapping question.
Did Beverley reveal a genuinely improved filly who needs soft ground, or did she simply dominate rivals who coped with the heavy conditions less effectively?
We don't know.
At around 6/1 or shorter, I don't think we're being paid enough to resolve that uncertainty with a bet. But she's certainly dangerous, and Timeform also regards further rain as a positive.
One Shot Kodi versus Diplomata
The Haydock rematch is another important piece of the puzzle.
One Shot Kodi looked as though she might have stolen that race before Diplomata finally escaped traffic and ran her down.
One Shot Kodi is now 6 lb better off.
Normally that would make a one-length defeat particularly interesting.
The problem is that the margin doesn't adequately describe Diplomata's performance. She lost momentum at important stages and was much better than the bare result.
So I'm not convinced the weight swing is sufficient to reverse the placings.
More importantly from a betting perspective, neither of our two HRB models is especially enthusiastic about One Shot Kodi.
She ranks seventh on Daily Speed and sixth on TimeWise.
At around 5/1, she's shorter than I'd want.
Don't completely ignore Bai Tong
At a much bigger price, Bai Tong is worth mentioning.
Her bare form of 5-2-7 doesn't scream handicap winner and she returns from 109 days off.
But there are little pieces of evidence pointing in the other direction.
She's fourth on HRB Daily Speed and fifth on TimeWise, while Karl Burke's recent stable numbers were encouraging on our HRB trainer screen.
She isn't strong enough to become a selection, but she's one I'd watch closely in the market.
The market has moved
There's another important development this morning.
Missouri Waltz was available at 15/2 when we initially analysed the race. Current public prices are now shorter, with roughly 5/1–11/2 showing with bookmakers, although exchange prices may differ.
That's significant because our job isn't merely to find winners.
It's to find occasions where our estimated probability is greater than the probability implied by the price.
My 100% tissue has Missouri Waltz around 4/1, with Diplomata approximately 5/2–3/1 territory and Necromancer around 5/1–6/1.
So the original 15/2 Missouri Waltz was a very different betting proposition from 5/1.
That's exactly why recording the price at which a selection was made matters.
The Verdict
Diplomata is the likeliest winner, but Missouri Waltz is the betting proposition.
Diplomata has compelling form credentials and could easily prove capable of overcoming her 10 lb rise. But around 11/8 leaves virtually no room for error.
Missouri Waltz gives us something different.
HRB Daily Speed: #1
TimeWise: #1
TimeWise Horse component: #1
TimeWise Speed component: #1
TimeWise Today component: #1
Lightly raced: yes
Return to a more suitable trip: yes
When independent strands of evidence begin converging on the same horse while the market prefers another, that's when I become interested.
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