An interesting juvenile novice in which the established form sets only a fair rather than demanding standard, leaving plenty of room for an improver or one of the well-bred newcomers.
Lizzie Bennet sets the standard on what she showed when second on debut at Carlisle. She was beaten 2½ lengths but split two subsequent winners, giving the form more substance than initially appeared likely. Racing Post awarded only RPR 67, so it would be dangerous to overstate the bare level, but she should know considerably more this time. Our private figure of around 84 makes her the one to beat on demonstrated ability.
Sweltering is much more interesting than her eighth at Kempton suggests. She was beaten only 5½ lengths, the form has subsequently worked out well and she shaped as though the experience would benefit her. Her debut is only around 78 on our scale, but considerable improvement is plausible. The exchange move from roughly 13.0 into 5.3 adds further interest, although the market move itself isn't a reason to inflate her rating.
La Torre is potentially the biggest unknown. Ralph Beckett's Lope De Vega filly has a strong pedigree and has attracted considerable market respect for her debut. She could easily be good enough to win an ordinary race of this nature, but at around 4.0 the market is already assuming a fair amount of ability. Until she races, she remains an unknown rather than an 85-plus horse on paper.
From Afar is another newcomer with plenty to recommend her on pedigree. The Baaeed filly is related to several good winners and represents William Haggas and Tom Marquand. However, her market position has weakened and, as with La Torre, there is no actual performance evidence yet. She needs respecting rather than guessing at a rating.
Ferrystream is the only previous winner. Her Windsor success was worth approximately 82 privately, but she subsequently disappointed at Newbury, albeit having failed to settle. The major issue here is the 7lb winner's penalty, and the market has pushed her out considerably. She has enough ability to be competitive if returning to her Windsor form, but she's giving weight to potentially progressive fillies.
Zirconic showed only modest promise on debut and needs a sizeable step forward from our figure of around 74. Blue Vixen and Lady Nenaz have considerably more to find on what they have shown.
Private assessment
Horse| Achieved private rating| View
Lizzie Bennet| 84| Sets the form standard
Ferrystream| 82| Capable, but 7lb penalty
Sweltering| 78| Strong candidate to improve
Zirconic| 74| Improvement required
Blue Vixen| 67| Plenty to find
Lady Nenaz| 60| Plenty to find
La Torre| —| Interesting newcomer
From Afar| —| Interesting newcomer
Pre-race par: 84–86.
Verdict
Lizzie Bennet is the percentage choice. She has the strongest piece of established form, has no penalty and should improve from her debut. At around 3.4 she also looks more reasonably priced than when trading below 3.0.
The interesting alternative is Sweltering. Her Kempton performance doesn't put her alongside Lizzie Bennet yet, but there are credible reasons to expect considerably better and the market has identified her as the principal improver.
La Torre could prove the best filly in the race, but at a relatively short debut price you're paying for that possibility before she's demonstrated it.
Ranking: LIZZIE BENNET — SWELTERING — LA TORRE — FERRYSTREAM — FROM AFAR.
This looks an ordinary-to-useful juvenile novice rather than an obviously strong Class 3 on what has been achieved so far. The most revealing outcome would be one of the principals winning decisively and putting daylight between herself and the established 82–84 benchmark.
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