The evidence points most strongly towards Bourbon Blues, with Thunder Run the chief danger and best bigger-priced alternative.
Expected at the fore near the line
1. Bourbon Blues — 12.0
The clearest all-round profile:
Top overall HRB rating: 395.8
Top last-race/speed figure: 114
Outstanding jockey/trainer/stallion score: 90.6
Ryan Moore booked
Comes here after winning
Stall 13 gives him options near the centre
He is approximately 38 points clear on the overall ratings. The only slight concern is that he has already climbed to OR 105 and must prove himself in an exceptionally competitive handicap.
2. Thunder Run — 21.0
The most interesting value runner:
Second overall: 357.9
Speed/last-race figure of 113
Recent winner
Karl Burke and Clifford Lee won this race in both 2024 and 2025
The last three winners carried 9-12, so his 10-0 is not automatically prohibitive
He lacks Bourbon Blues’ depth across the secondary figures, but his price compensates for that.
3. Hand Of God — 11.0
A solid rather than spectacular candidate:
Third overall on 338.0
Speed figure 104
Proven course winner
Finished second last time
Stall 24 could be useful if the stronger pace develops towards the stands’ side
His adjusted last-race figure suggests he may not be quite as well treated as Bourbon Blues or Thunder Run.
4. Wild Thoughts — 19.0
One of the more appealing younger runners:
Speed figure 108
Recent winner
Only 8-8 from OR 93
Progressive three-year-old profile
Sixth overall despite having very limited mileage
He has only one mile recorded by HRB, so there is more uncertainty, but also more potential improvement.
5. Shafdar — 29.0
The outsider most likely to outrun his price:
Fourth overall: 337.9
Last-race figure 101
William Buick booked
Arrives after winning
Manageable weight of 8-13
Stall 5 is the main tactical unknown, but historical winners have come from virtually every part of the track.
Favourite assessment
Gavriel at 4.5 looks too short.
He is unbeaten in three of four starts and has considerable potential, but:
He ranks only eighth overall.
His speed figure of 102 is 12 points below Bourbon Blues.
Stall 28 leaves him exposed to how the race develops.
His price demands a much higher degree of certainty than the available evidence provides.
He is clearly capable of winning, but the market appears to have priced the potential rather than the proven performance.
My tissue
Horse Fair odds Available
Bourbon Blues 9.0 12.0
Thunder Run 15.0 21.0
Hand Of God 12.0 11.0
Wild Thoughts 17.0 19.0
Gavriel 7.5 4.5
Harmonics 17.0 13.0
Shafdar 23.0 29.0
Indalo 14.0 10.0
Betting decision
1 point each way Bourbon Blues at 12.0
0.5 point each way Thunder Run at 21.0 or bigger
My expected leading group inside the final furlong is Bourbon Blues, Thunder Run, Hand Of God and Wild Thoughts, with Shafdar the likeliest one to arrive late at a big price. Bourbon Blues is the strongest individual selection; Thunder Run is the best value relative to the ratings.
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